China's Missed Opportunity

China’s re-emergence on the world stage has been one of the dominant issues of the 21st century so far. That country is now the first real alternative to the United States as the leading power in the world since the Soviet Union, and in many ways, China’s power and influence is much greater and widespread than the Soviet Union’s ever was. In recent decades, China has made massive investments in most parts of the world. In addition, China’s giant market of 1.4 billion people has made that country a leading export market for most of the world’s countries and businesses. Meanwhile, as Chinese influence was spreading, the world’s leading power, the United States, found itself dealing with a great deal of internal disfunction, further opening the door for China to expand its influence in areas of the world where the United States considered itself to be the leading power. The question now is, did China miss its chance to supplant the US as the leading power in these parts of the world, or will China continue to make gains at the expense of the US.

Contrary to rumors of its demise, the United States remains the world’s leading power by nearly all measures of power and influence. Nevertheless, doubts have arisen about the US’ ability and willingness to remain the world’s leading power. Some of these doubts stem from the economic crises that have battered the United States and other developed economies so far in the 21st century. However, most of these doubts have arisen due to the growing disfunction within US politics. Internal political and social divisions in the United States have widened considerably in recent years, forcing the US to focus more on internal issues than external ones. As result, rivals of the US sense an opportunity to take advantage of a distracted United States, while partners of the US question the superpower’s commitment to their partnership.

These distractions have opened the door for China to play a much greater role in global affairs. This is most notable on the economic front, as China has established deep economic roots around the world through initiatives such as the Chinese-led Belt and Road Initiative. As a result, China is now the leading source of foreign investment for many countries around the world. At the same time, China’s growing internal market has made that country the leading source of export growth for many countries and businesses. We see this in many regions of the world. For example, dozens of African countries have found themselves deeply dependent, in an economic sense, on China. Likewise, many Latin American countries depend upon both investment from China and access to China’s vast export market in order to generate economic growth. Add to these economic factors China’s rapidly-expanding military might, and it is easy to see why China’s global influence is expanding so quickly.

The developments of recent years gave China the opportunity to win hearts and minds around the world. However, China squandered this opportunity. Instead, China bullied many of its neighbors and economic partners. In some cases, China forced poorer countries into a form of economic dependence, making them reliant upon financing and investment from China. As a result, dozens of countries, many of them in Africa, now owe massive debts to China, debts that they will struggle to pay for decades to come. At the same time, China has used its clout as a major source of growth for exporters around the world to punish countries that it views as having hostile policies towards China. For example, when Australia questioned the origin of the Covid-19 pandemic, China slapped punitive tariffs on all sorts of exports from Australia.

China’s more forceful policies are not limited to the economic front. For example, China is in the midst of a massive military build-up, investing heavily on military projects that are designed to project Chinese power well beyond its borders. This military build-up has alarmed many countries in the Indo-Pacific region, leading to the creation of numerous alliances across that region that are aimed at countering China’s rising power and assertiveness. Many of these alliances include the United States, including the Quad and the AUKUS alliances that have been the focus of much attention in recent months. Add to this China’s increasingly-aggressive stance towards Taiwan, and it is clear that China’s behavior is causing a great deal of consternation among its neighbors.

As it was during the Cold War, the world is finding itself pulled in two directions by two rival superpowers. In fact, most countries do not want to have to choose sides between the United States and China, for unlike during the Cold War, China’s economic influence is great, whereas the Soviet Union’s economic influence was miniscule. However, it is increasingly clear that both Washington and Beijing are demanding that other countries choose sides. The most immediate impact of this superpower rivalry is being felt in Asia. There, US-led alliances are emerging to counter China’s rising power, while trade deals are being used as geopolitical tools by China and others. However, given the vast power possessed by both the United States and China, their rivalry will have an impact around the world. Meanwhile, the fact that China has squandered the opportunity that it was given by the political disfunction in the United States in recent years means that the US has been given another chance to rally its partners around the world, a chance the US now seems to be taking. This will be a crucial development as the world enters into what appears to be a long period of domination by two rival superpowers.