Trump and Xi
Without a doubt, the relationship between the United States and China is the most important bilateral relationship in the world today and will remain so for the foreseeable future. As a result, the relationship between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is the most important personal relationship between world leaders today. In fact, both leaders place great value on personal relationships, making their ability to see eye-to-eye all the more important. Their first meeting last month in Florida appears to have gone down extremely well, with both leaders developing a personal rapport with one another and agreeing to work together on a number of issues. This bodes well for the relationship between the world’s two leading powers and has raised hopes that they can work together on a number of important issues. However, while the relationship between Trump and Xi may be strong, there are a number of issues that continue to divide the United States and China and will do so in the coming years.
As the world’s two largest economies, the United States and China are at odds over a number of economic issues. When President Trump took office, he entered the White House condemning a number of China’s economic policies and he vowed to drastically reform the economic relationship between his country and China. For example, he accused China of engaging in numerous unfair trade practices that were detrimental to the US economy and, in particular, to the US’ manufacturing sector. Furthermore, he accused China of manipulating its currency to bolster its economic competitiveness, a claim that was made many years too late thanks to the recent strength of the yuan.
On the other side, many Chinese political and business leaders believe that the United States is attempting to hold down the rising economic power and influence of China. Moreover, the protectionist rhetoric of President Trump and many members of his government scared many in China as it threatened to derail China’s export growth (although most Chinese officials welcomed President Trump’s decision to withdraw the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal). For the moment, economic tensions appear to have eased, as President Trump has backtracked on many of his allegations against China, while toning down his protectionist rhetoric. However, economic tensions between the US and China could resurface over any number of issues in the coming months, damaging bilateral relations.
In addition to the economic disputes that Presidents Trump and Xi must overcome, their countries are engaged in a number of potentially dangerous flashpoints that could trigger a conflict between the two countries. Moreover, President Xi has moved steadily in his first four-and-half years in office to assert Chinese primacy in Asia and in the western Pacific, but he ran into strong opposition to these moves from the Obama Administration. Now, President Xi is hopeful that his new US counterpart will more readily accept China’s leading role in the region, a hope that was boosted by President Trump’s calls for the US’ allies in Asia to do more for their own defense and security.
Interestingly, the one issue where the personal relationship between the US and Chinese presidents has had a noticeable impact is North Korea. Here, President Trump’s calls for China to do more to reign in North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs appears to have convinced President Xi to step up Chinese pressure on North Korea, as evidenced by China’s recent reduction in coal and gas shipments to that country. Nevertheless, while there is a level of increased cooperation between Washington and Beijing over North Korea, many other issues will continue to divide the two superpowers and whether or not the relationship between Presidents Trump and Xi can overcome these disputes remains to be seen.
So far, President Trump and President Xi appear to get along rather well and this is to be welcomed by the international community. Despite much of what he said during last year’s election campaign, President Trump appears to have a healthy degree of respect for China’s growing power and he appears to favor working together with China on a number of issues. As for President Xi, he is widely reported to hold very favorable views of the United States and also possesses a great deal of respect for the power of the US.
However, both presidents face much internal opposition to the development of closer ties between the two countries. In the US, many influential members of President Trump’s Republican party (as well as many Democrats) want the president to take a harder line towards China with regards to issues such as trade and the South China Sea dispute. In China, more nationalistic elements of the Communist Party and the country’s armed forces want President Xi to take a more confrontational stance towards the US and its allies in the Asia-Pacific region.
As such, the personal relationship between the world’s two most powerful political leaders will be extremely important in maintaining a stable relationship between the US and China in the years ahead. If they can bolster US-Chinese ties in the coming years, the prospects for economic growth and global stability will be significantly enhanced. If they fall out, or cannot control more hostile elements of their governments and armed forces, a deterioration in relations could lead to a new version of the Cold War.