Japan's Security and the Rise of China
Japan’s recently passed security law has proven to be highly controversial, both inside Japan and among many of its neighbors in Asia. While this security law maintains Japan’s focus on its defense, and the defense of its allies, many inside and outside of Japan are fretful that this will lead to Japan taking a more active military role in East Asia and the Pacific. Interestingly, for most of the country’s history, Japan’s military policies were aimed at protecting Japan’s home islands from potential aggressors. However, Japan’s efforts to become the dominant power in East Asia and the western Pacific in the latter part of the 19th century and the first half of the 20th century dominate the discussion on Japan’s armed forces today. As a result, any changes to Japan’s pacifist constitution are seen by many in Japan and its neighbors as an effort to re-establish Japan as a country with significant offensive military capabilities.
For many years now, Japanese lawmakers have been debating potential changes to the country’s laws that govern its armed forces that would allow Japan to play a more active military role outside of its borders. This is the case for Japan’s new security law, which will allow Japanese armed forces to come to the aid of its allies outside of Japan for the first time since the end of the Second World War. As a result of the passage of this law, there will most likely be a much greater level of co-operation and co-ordination between the armed forces of Japan and the United States, particularly in the waters of the western Pacific, where the rise of China has unsettled both countries. Nevertheless, while Japan has reiterated that these changes to the country’s security laws are defensive in nature, they have been condemned by China, as well as by both countries on the Korean Peninsula, all victims of Japanese aggression the first half of the 20th century.
It is no secret that Japan’s decision to revise its security laws has been driven primarily by the growing military and economic power of China, and the growing gap in the balance of power between China and Japan. Prior to the Meiji Restoration in the latter part of the 19th century, Japan lived in fear of its giant neighbor and was fortunate enough to avoid subjugation by mainland Asian powers, much as Britain was able to do in Europe since the 11th century thanks to its status as an island nation. While China’s descent into backwardness and chaos in the 19th and early 20th centuries allowed a modernized Japan to become East Asia’s dominant power for a few decades, the situation is once again reversing as China’s economic growth and its vast scale give it the potential to become a great military power once again. In contrast, Japan’s demographic decline, economic stagnation and its lack of land and resources, means that Japan’s potential military power is now quite constrained, allowing China to continuously pull ahead of Japan in terms of military power. Moreover, these factors will remain in place for the foreseeable future, resulting in China’s potential military and economic power dwarfing that of Japan in the coming decades.
Japan’s security policies going forward will continue to be dominated by the impact of the rising power of China in East Asia and the threat that China poses to Japanese security. The cornerstone of Japan’s security policies in the coming years and decades will remain its close defense ties with the United States, and no country has welcomed the US’ shift in focus to Asia in recent years more than Japan. Nevertheless, Japan will also continue to develop and enhance its defense ties with other countries in the region that are also concerned about the rising power of China. These countries include India, Australia, Taiwan and the Philippines, and Japan will likely push for firmer defense ties between these countries which may one day evolve into a defense pact along the lines of NATO in Europe. Meanwhile, Japan will continue to focus its military expenditures on allowing Japan to maintain air and sea superiority in the skies and waters above and around its home islands, much as Britain did in the Second World War, when its command of the sea and the air prevented a German invasion. Nevertheless, even as Japan’s military focuses on these areas, the country must face the fact that it will soon no longer be able to offset Chinese power on its own, so enhancing its ties with the United States and other powers in the region will be the key to Japanese security in the 21st century.