The Future of US-Russian Relations

After a prolonged period in which Russia was little more than an afterthought in US political and economic circles, Russia has resurfaced with a vengeance as a major issue confronting the United States in recent years.  First, Russia’s blatant intervention in the conflict in eastern Ukraine and its seizure of the Crimea reminded US leaders of Russia’s potential to cause major disruptions in East Europe.  Second, Russia’s aggressive behavior towards many European countries in the wake of the conflict in Ukraine was meant to remind the US that Russia could still project power across Europe.  Third, Russia’s intervention in the civil war in Syria on the side of the embattled Assad regime was a reminder that Russia could also play a decisive role in Middle Eastern affairs.  Finally, Russia’s apparent interference in this year’s presidential election was the move that finally convinced many US leaders of Russia’s hostile intent towards the US.  However, the next US president does not view Russia as a hostile power and this is setting up 2017 to be a decisive year in US-Russian relations. 

While Russia has only resurfaced in recent years as a major foreign policy issue in the United States, it appears that US President-elect Donald Trump views Russia as potentially the leading international partner for the US.  There is no question that Russian President Vladimir Putin backed the Trump campaign in this year’s presidential election, while this support may have gone much further to include significant efforts to influence the outcome of this election.  The worst of these allegations include efforts to hack the computers of the Democratic Party and to spread false news that supported the Trump campaign on social media.  The result of these efforts was to anger many political leaders in the United States, including many high-ranking members of the Republican Party.  However, President-elect Trump has signaled that he intends to establish strong relations with Russia by his decision to name many pro-Russian political and security leaders to his cabinet.  Moreover, the US president-elect intends to work closely with President Putin, despite the Russian leader’s efforts to undermine the US in recent years.

For Russia, the election of Donald Trump presents a very unique opportunity to restore its position in the wake of the multitude of setbacks that have beset the country over the past 25 years since the dissolution of the Soviet Union.  First, President Putin hopes that President-elect Trump will move to lift US and Western sanctions that have been in place since the seizure of Crimea and that have contributed to Russia’s recent economic struggles.  Second, Russia hopes that a reduced US commitment to European security will give it a free hand in Central and Eastern Europe, while dividing the Western alliances that have prevented Russia from playing a larger role in European affairs.  Third, President Putin hopes that President-elect Trump will agree with Russia’s position in the Middle East and that the two countries will work together to reduce the threat of Middle-Eastern-based terrorism. Overall, it is President Putin’s view that the domination of international economic and security affairs by the United States in recent decades has been harmful to Russia, so a more isolationist US with a lesser commitment to its international ties is viewed as potentially the last chance for Russia to restore itself to great power status.

While Trump and Putin appear to want to be friends who work closely together on a number of international issues, it is unlikely that the United States and Russia as a whole are interested in such a deep relations.  On one side, Russia sees the United States as the leading obstacle to its international ambitions, preventing it from being the superpower that it once was.  On the other side, many leaders in the United States continue to view Russia as a threat to international security and the US’ position in many areas of the world.  Overall, Russia is clearly a much weaker power than the United States and is in no position to threaten the US’ global leadership position.  Instead, it is China that is now, and will remain, the only significant threat to the US’ position of global pre-eminence.  This brings us back to the 1970s, when US President Richard Nixon embraced China in a bid to establish a tripartite global relationship between the world’s three largest powers in which China was the junior partner to the US, offsetting the power of the Russia-dominated Soviet Union.  Today, Russia is finding itself as China’s junior partner in what some see as a new global tripartite system, with the US and China as the world’s dominant powers and with Russia as a much weaker junior partner.  This is not the position President Putin wants his country to be in, so for him, an opportunity to restore Russian power while maintaining closer ties with the US may be his best chance to avoid Russia’s long-term marginalization in world affairs.  He may just have found his partner in the US to achieve this ambition.