Europe's Migration Crisis is Likely to Worsen

Of all of developments of the past few years, none may have more long-term repercussions than the ongoing migration crisis in Europe.  Not since the Second World War have we seen such a mass movement of humanity and the fact is that this population shift may grow much larger in the months and years ahead.  As war, instability, joblessness and resource depletion all combine to disrupt the lives of the rapidly-expanding populations of the countries between West Africa and Central Asia, an increasing number of people are likely to flee from those areas in search of stability and a better economic future.  As Europe is the closest region that is both relatively stable and prosperous, it is Europe that has become the primary destination for most of these migrants.  Unfortunately, Europe has struggled to deal with the inflow of people over the past few years and there is a real possibility that the number of migrants attempting to reach Europe could soar to new heights in the coming months and years.

Over the past two years, there has been a dramatic increase in the number of migrants and refugees attempt to reach Europe, mostly via the Mediterranean Sea.  In 2014, more than 283,000 people reached the European Union from countries in the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia.  Most of these people reached Italy by boat from North Africa, with more than 3,000 people dying along this perilous route.  Many had thought that this would be the height of the migration crisis in Europe, but they were mistaken as in 2015, nearly 1.1 million migrants and refugees arrived in the European Union.  This time, the primary route was from Turkey to Greece, via a number of Greek islands just off of the Turkish coast, and nearly 3,700 people died attempting to reach Europe last year.  Meanwhile, the vast majority of the recent migrants were attempting to reach just two European countries, Germany and Sweden, as these countries initially were very welcoming to large numbers of refugees.  Moreover, most other European Union member states were reluctant to accept large numbers of migrants and refugees, while those states in southeastern Europe through which the migrants travelled to northern Europe were completely overwhelmed by the shear number of the migrants crossing their territory.

As the migration crisis shows no signs of abating, public opinion across Europe has turned decidedly against the influx of even more migrants into the EU, particularly in the wake of the terrorist attacks in Paris and the alleged crimes committed by migrants in Germany and Sweden.  Moreover, the fact that nearly 60,000 migrants arrived in Greece last month alone, during a time of the year when few migrants had been willing to brave the dangerous waters of the Aegean Sea, suggests that the flow of migrants into Europe could rise much further this year.  In fact, some experts are now warning that between three and four million migrants and refugees may enter Europe this year as the conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya show no signs of being brought to an end in the near future.  Moreover, economic migrants from other areas of the Middle East and Africa may test their luck amid this surge of humanity into Europe in the coming months.  As such, the European Union must act in a much quicker and more decisive manner in order to prevent this crisis from spiraling out of control.

As the flow of humanity from the south and the east into Europe continues to accelerate, there are huge implications for all of the regions involved.  For those countries in the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia that are home to these people fleeing for Europe, the fact that many of their best, brightest and most ambitious people are leaving home, often permanently, threatens to result in a brain drain that will permanent damage the long-term economic futures of these countries.  For Europe, the implications may be even larger.  On the positive side, Europe is in the midst of a severe demographic decline, so an influx of younger workers and consumers could provide the region with a much-needed economic boost.  However, there is little desire in any European country for an even greater number of migrants and refugees entering the region, even in Germany and Sweden, the two countries that have been the most generous in dealing with this issue so far.  As a result, political extremism is on the rise across Europe and the migration crisis has played the leading role in the recent success of extremist political movements in Europe.  Nevertheless, even if Europe decides to attempt to stem the flow migrants and refugees into the region, it is unclear if anything can actually be done to prevent massive numbers of migrants and refugees from reaching Europe.