ISA Coronavirus Update (9th of July)

Daily Summary

There are now more than 12 million known cases of the coronavirus around the world, with the number of new cases rising by more than 213,000 yesterday alone.  Meanwhile, the number of global fatalities has risen to more than 552,000 as the average daily number of new fatalities has hovered just below 5,000 in recent days.

With a large share of the United States’ population opposed to many social distancing measures (especially mask-wearing), the number of new cases of the coronavirus in the US continues to rise.  Yesterday, more than 61,800 cases were diagnosed in the US.  Meanwhile, after trending downwards for weeks, the number of new fatalities in the US linked to the virus rose this week.

The number of fatalities from the coronavirus in South America continued to rise sharply in recent days, with the overall number of fatalities in that region now approaching 100,000.  More than two-thirds of these fatalities have occurred in Brazil.

Recent outbreaks in Tokyo and Melbourne have raised fears that the Asia-Pacific region, which has largely avoided any major outbreaks of the coronavirus since the early weeks of the pandemic, could face the prospect of much larger outbreaks in the coming months.

Key Developments

US-China Trade Tensions: So far, China has failed to increase its imports from the United States to the levels that were foreseen as part of a trade deal between the world’s two largest economies earlier this year.  Due to the pandemic, reaching these trade targets looks increasingly unlikely.

Eurozone Economic Crisis: The European Commission now expects the Eurozone economy to contract by 8.7% this year, before rebounding to grow by 6.1% in 2021.  According to the commission, the French, Italian and Spanish economies will all contract by more than 10% this year.

Trend to Watch

Aid agencies are warning that the disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic could result in many times more people dying from malnutrition than from the coronavirus itself.  In fact, food shortages are already being reported in many areas of the world.

The Coming Days

With the 2020-2021 school year approaching in the Northern Hemisphere, a number of countries are debating when and how to reopen schools, with a second wave of the pandemic expected, or with an unfinished first wave still in place in some areas.