China's Search for Allies

Despite China’s recent economic struggles, the country’s rise to superpower status continues.  As China’s power grows, it sees itself as a leading power in a bi-polar or multi-polar world, with China as the undisputed leading power in Asia.  In fact, the view in Beijing that all of Asia is within China’s sphere of influence has led to great concerns across that region over Chinese intentions there.  In turn, this has led many mid- and smaller-sized powers in that region to increase their defense and economic cooperation, while turning to the region’s leading military power, the United States, to increase its focus on the region in order to prevent Chinese domination.  Meanwhile, China may have found it difficult to find allies in its own region, but it has had more success outside of Asia, as China has developed closer ties with a host of countries around the world.  However, economic and political changes in China could jeopardize many of these foreign relationships.

As China’s power projection capabilities remain limited, its focus in terms of defense and international relations issues remains on Asia.  However, China’s claim to be rightful dominant power in Asia has made it difficult for China to find, or maintain, allies in the region.  Moreover, China’s aggressive maritime and territorial claims in places such as the East China Sea, the South China Sea and along its border with India have damaged relations with most other leading powers in the region.  Adding to China’s diplomatic woes is the fact that many of its traditional allies in the region are proving to be difficult partners, whether it is North Korea’s unpredictability, Pakistan’s internal chaos or Myanmar’s recent withdrawal from China’s orbit.  What makes this even more disconcerting for Beijing is the fact that the United States has found it much easier to strengthen its relations with a number of the region’s leading powers in recent years, including India, Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines.  While some influential policy makers in Beijing believe that countries such as South Korea and Thailand could move closer to China in the coming years, the fact is that most countries in Asia are taking steps to balance China’s rising power in the region.

While China’s search for allies has been floundering in Asia, outside of that region, China has managed to develop a number of relationships with potential strategic partners.  For example, economic and political ties between China and Russia have improved dramatically over the past decade, due in large part to both powers’ desire to prevent the United States from remaining the world’s dominant power.  Meanwhile, the massive amounts of trade and investment that have flowed from China to much of the Southern Hemisphere have allowed Beijing to develop strong relations with dozens of emerging markets in Latin America and Africa.  However, China faces two major problems in maintaining its relations with these emerging market partners.  First, China’s economic rebalancing will reduce China’s trade and investment ties with many of these countries.  Second, China’s long-range power projection capabilities remain limited and this will prevent China from developing significant defense ties with most potential partners outside of Asia for many years to come. 

There is little doubt that China’s economic, political and military power will continue to rise in the coming years.  Nevertheless, China’s leaders know that, in order for China to achieve its economic and security goals, it will need to find and maintain allies, both in Asia and further abroad.  In its home region, China’s bungled diplomacy risks leaving the country surrounded by powers seeking to hold back the spread of Chinese power and influence, while seeking to convince the United States to play a greater role in preventing China from dominating the region.  This encirclement could prevent China from gaining control of the vital sea lanes in the region, putting its economy at risk from strangulation in a time of conflict.  Outside of Asia, China’s role in boosting economic growth for natural resource exporters is being reduced by China’s economic rebalancing and this threatens to undermine many of China’s diplomatic achievements in Latin America, Africa and elsewhere.  What is clear is that China needs, more than ever, skilled diplomatic leaders that can boost China’s foreign relations, allowing for China’s global power and influence to continue to grow in a steady and peaceful manner.