ISA Ukraine Conflict Update - 10th of June 2022

Daily Summary

The Battle of Sverodonetsk remained the focal point of the conflict in Ukraine in recent days, with Russian forces now in control of most of that strategically-located city in the eastern region of Luhansk. As Russia has suffered massive losses to its armored forces in the war in Ukraine so far, its offensive efforts in eastern Ukraine and in this battle have been focused increasingly on the use of heavy artillery to wear down Ukrainian defenses in that region, something that appears to be weighing on the morale of the Ukrainian defenders.

Russian forces have also made limited gains in their efforts to carry out a large-scale pincer movement to the west of Sverodonetsk, advancing in the north from the area around the city of Izyum and from the south in the direction of the city of Bakhmut. If this offensive gains momentum, it could force the remaining Ukrainian forces around Sverodonetsk to retreat to the west in order to avoid being cut off by this attempted Russian pincer movement.

In southern Ukraine, Russia has been deploying more forces in the region to the north of the city of Kherson, the largest Ukrainian city under Russian control. Here, Ukrainian forces have regained some territory from the Russians in recent weeks, but are facing increasingly robust defensive measures by the Russians. Meanwhile, there have been reports that Russia is using weapons and other materiel that is up to 75 years old in its defense of Kherson, highlighting the drain on Russian resources that this conflict has created.

What to Watch

The Threat of Cholera in Mariupol: There have been a series of reports in recent days warning that the devastated southern Ukrainian port city of Mariupol could be on the brink of a major outbreak of cholera due to the fact that sewage and dead bodies have been contaminating the city’s water supplies.

Resistance to Russian Mobilization: Efforts by Russian officials to step up the pace of mobilization in the areas of eastern Ukraine under their control have been meeting with increasing opposition, limiting Russia’s ability to replace its casualties on the front lines in eastern Ukraine.