Iran Faces a Bleak Future

Overstretched: In recent years, it has appeared as if Iran was a country on the rise, as it was playing a large role in the affairs of many countries in the Middle East, while attracting a great deal attention from world powers such as the United States, China and Russia.  Over the past 20 years, Iran’s influence in the Middle East has steadily grown, and it played a major role in the affairs of countries stretching from Lebanon in the West to Afghanistan in the East.  Likewise, Iran’s economy appeared to be on the mend, as oil and gas output increased and the country regained access to foreign markets and sources of investment.  However, a major change appears to be in store for Iran, a change for the worse.  First, Iran has been locked in a potentially dangerous standoff with Saudi Arabia and its allies in the region, one that threatens to unleash a major war in the Middle East.  Second, the United States has now withdrawn from the international nuclear deal with Iran.  As a result, Iran faces two major threats to its well-being.  One is in the form of a potential conflict with a host of countries that have a much higher power potential that Iran does.  The other is economic, as Iran faces the prospects of once again losing access to its vital export markets and sources of foreign investment. 

Too Many Wars: Despite the overall weakness of its armed forces, Iran has been heavily involved in a number of conflicts outside of its borders.  In neighboring Iraq, Iran has played an instrumental role in supporting Shiite political movements in that country and Iran’s armed forces helped the Iraqi military to drive the Islamic State militant group from Iraqi territory.  In Syria, Iran has been a primary supporter of the Assad regime, providing it with weapons and funding that helped it to turn the tide of Syria’s civil war in its favor over the past couple of years.  In Yemen, Iran has played an increasing role in supporting the Houthi rebels and their allies in their efforts to defeat the Saudi-led coalition that controls parts of southern and eastern Yemen.  Now, as Iran has potentially overstretched its military capabilities through its involvement in all of these conflicts, it faces the prospect of a conflict with Saudi Arabia and its largely Sunni allies in the Middle East.  Of course, the Saudis and their allies have struggled militarily in Yemen, but their economic power dwarfs that of Iran.  Worse for Iran, the United States appears to be giving the Saudis their full backing with regards to their stance on Iran.  Given the fact that the United States still possesses vast military resources all around Iran’s borders, this must be a very disconcerting fact for Tehran. 

Economic Weakness: Iran’s precarious military position stems in no small part from the severe weakness of the country’s economy.  Decades of economic sanctions have cost Iran dearly and reduced the country’s economic power by a tremendous amount.  For example, these sanctions prevented Iranian industries from receiving much foreign investment in recent decades, leaving its industrial infrastructure in desperate need of repair and modernization.  At the same time, Iran lost access to many of its key export markets, while its rivals in the region became wealthier exporting oil and gas around the world.  In recent years, as these sanctions were gradually lifted, Iran’s economy began to get back on its feet, with higher levels of trade and investment fueling an economic recovery.  Now, the threat of new sanctions by the United States and others could bring a premature end to this economic recovery in Iran and cause great hardship for the people of Iran.  When one considers the fragile state of the Iranian economy, it is clear that the country is in no position to withstand the impact that such sanctions would have on Iran’s economic well-being.

An Uncertain Future: Not long ago, Iranians were cautiously hopefully that their country was on the verge of a much brighter future, both in terms of security and prosperity.  Politically, they could envision a time when Iran was a leading power in the Middle East, with allies across the region beholden to the government in Tehran.  At the same time, Iranians were hopeful that an oil-fueled economic recovery would lead to a major improvement in their living standards, after decades of economic dislocation and severe hardships.  Now, Iran is facing major external and internal threats that could usher in a new period of austerity and instability for that country.  Externally, Saudi Arabia and the United States appear set on reducing Iran’s ability to influence countries across the Middle East, and these efforts could extend to include an eventually military conflict with Iran.  Internally, frustration is mounting as living standards in Iran have fallen sharply and could fall further as new sanctions are imposed on that country.  This could bring massive numbers of protestors to the streets of Iranian cities, forcing Tehran to decide between a crackdown on its own people or major political reforms.  Whatever happens, these next few months are likely to be critical for the future of Iran, as well as for its relations with the rest of the world.