Could the War in Ukraine Resume?

In recent weeks, there are been conflicting signs emanating from eastern Ukraine.  On one hand, Russia and Ukraine have each signed a number of deals of late, including one on the withdrawal of more heavy weapons from the front line in eastern Ukraine and another on Russian gas exports to Ukraine.  Each of these deals signals that communications between the highest levels of both countries’ governments continues.  On the other hand, sporadic fighting has erupted between Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russian militants along many of the most volatile sections of the front line, and this fighting has intensified in recent days.  As a result, the possibility of a full-scale resumption of the war in eastern Ukraine is rising, particularly as Russia has yet to achieve all of its goals in Ukraine.

Fighting has broken out along a number of sections of the front line in eastern Ukraine, especially along two of the most contested areas of the front.  First, heavy fighting continued around the airport of the city of Donetsk, the largest city under the control of pro-Russian militants in Ukraine.  In fact, fighting in and around the contested airport has never really stopped in the two months since the ceasefire was reached by the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France in Minsk.  Meanwhile, fighting has also been reported around the vital port city of Mariupol along the Black Sea Coast.  This city’s location is vital as it stands between the area of southeastern Ukraine under the control of pro-Russian militants and the Crimea, which was annexed by Russia last year.

The fighting in eastern Ukraine has continued as a result of the fact that Russia and its militant allies have yet to achieve all of their objectives in Ukraine.  For example, Crimea remains completely unattached to the rest of Russia or to pro-Russian militant-held areas of eastern Ukraine.  Moreover, many other areas of Ukraine where pro-Russian sentiment is predominant remain under the (tenuous) control of the Ukrainian government in Kiev.  Finally, despite the defeats that it suffered at the hands of the Russian-supported militants in eastern Ukraine, President Petro Poroshenko’s government has ignored Moscow’s warnings not to establish closer economic and defense ties with the West, angering the Russian government that is fearful of Ukraine becoming firmly attached to the European Union and NATO.

As has been the case since the start of the crisis in Ukraine in early 2014, it is Russia that is calling the shots.  Clearly, Russia is not completely satisfied with the current situation in Ukraine and can use the threat of war to extract more concessions from Kiev and the West.  Moreover, Russia has beefed up it military strength in eastern Ukraine and in adjacent areas across the border in Russia, giving it the option to quickly resume the war if it sees an opportunity to make territorial gains in eastern Ukraine.  Russia’s top short-term goal is to secure access to Crimea and this will make Mariupol the focal point of any military actions in the coming months.  Furthermore, should the Ukrainian government move to further strengthen its ties to the West, or become more dependent upon nationalistic elements in Ukraine, Russia will likely exercise the military option in order to force Kiev into making even more concessions.  As a result, the return to full-scale war remains very likely in eastern Ukraine.