Hope for Colombia
The recent agreement on a ceasefire between the Colombian government and the left-wing FARC rebel group has brought hope that 50 years of civil war in Colombia are coming to a long-awaited end. This ceasefire is the product of both three years of Cuban-hosted negotiations between the two sides, as well as the ability of Colombia’s armed forces to significantly degrade the military capabilities of the FARC rebels over the past two decades. Now, for the first time in a long time, there is optimism for the future of Colombia, both in terms of stability and prosperity. Of course, reaching and implementing a permanent peace deal could prove to be very difficult in the coming months and years. Nevertheless, the outlook for Colombia has improved dramatically.
Since peace talks between the Colombian government and the FARC rebel group began three years ago in Cuba, hopes have gradually been raised that a ceasefire and then a peace deal could be reached between the two sides. After many ups and downs in these negotiations, agreements were reached on nearly all of the main sticking points between the government and the rebels. These included an agreement by the rebels to hand over all of their weapons to UN monitors within six months of the signing of a peace deal, the creation of camps and transition zones for the remaining FARC rebels, and a deal to allow Colombia’s judicial system to decide whether or not a referendum on a peace deal would be held in Colombia. With these agreements, it is now expected that the final peace deal will be signed in the coming weeks. When this is signed, all sides will be watching closely to make sure that these agreements are implemented, thus bringing an end to a conflict that lasted five decades and claimed more than 220,000 lives.
For most Colombians, this ceasefire has been welcomed as it offers Colombia its best chance for peace in two generations. Nevertheless, many challenges will remain, even after the eventually peace deal is signed and its terms are implemented. For example, other left-wing and right-wing rebel groups remain in place across Colombia, and some of these groups have so far refused to enter into talks with the government. For example, the country’s second-largest rebel group, the left-wing ELN, has offered a bilateral ceasefire with the Colombian government, but has thus far refused to lay down its arms and enter into full-scale peace talks. In addition, drug traffickers continue to control many remote areas of the country and are unlikely to be willing to negotiate with the government. Another threat comes from the right-wing of Colombian politics, as former President Alvaro Uribe and his supporters have opposed President Juan Manuel Santos’ efforts to reach a deal with the FARC rebels and have called for the recent agreements to be scrapped. Finally, the eventual integration of the FARC rebels and their supporters into Colombia’s political system could prove difficult, particularly if the former rebels feel that they are being marginalized within Colombia’s political framework.
While much work remains to be done in order to bring stability to Colombia, the fact that the country is moving towards a more stable and secure future bodes well for the country’s economy and for the prosperity of its citizens. First and foremost, Colombia stands to realize a major increase in much-needed foreign investment if peace can take hold across the country. With large reserves of oil and other natural resources, Colombia could be on the verge of a major economic expansion that could raise living standards in that country. In addition, exporters around the world view Colombia as an untapped market with a significant potential for group. In fact, given the struggles of most other larger Latin American economies in recent years, Colombia stands out as a beacon of hope for businesses and investors in that region. This is what Colombia stands to gain if peace can take hold there, something that is finally a distinct possibility after more than 50 years of conflict.