ISA Coronavirus Update (27th of April)

Daily Summary

The number of Covid-19 cases around the world reached one million on the 2nd of April, two million on the 15th of April (13 days later) and three million today (12 days later).  Meanwhile, the number of official fatalities from the pandemic surpassed 200,000 last weekend.

As more and more countries in Europe appear to have reached the peak of the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic, governments across that region are announcing plans to ease some of the lockdown restrictions that were put in place over the past two months.  This includes the opening of more types of shops and public places and the return of some children to school.

Russia continued to experience a sharp increase in the number of cases of the coronavirus, with the official number of cases in that country rising to more than 87,000.  A recent study suggested that as many as one-in-ten people living in Moscow may have contracted the virus.  Meanwhile, there are fears that two major holidays that are taking place in Russia in the coming weeks could lead to a new spike in the number of coronavirus cases in that country.

While the focus on the coronavirus pandemic in Sub-Saharan Africa has been on the region’s lack of preparedness for such a crisis, another important aspect of this crisis is the fact that it will lead to a contraction of that region’s economy this year, resulting in higher levels of poverty there.

Key Developments

Russia Passes China: The official number of coronavirus cases in Russia surpassed that of China today, although there are significant questions regarding the official data from both countries.  Meanwhile, many of the new cases found in China have originated in Russia.

Emerging Market Economic Pain: An increasing number of emerging markets have been forced to seek emergency financing from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other lenders as their financial position worsens as a result of the economic impact of the coronavirus crisis.

Trend to Watch

The political protests that were destabilizing countries across the Middle East, Latin America and other regions have been halted due to the coronavirus crisis, but as anger over the lockdown rises, they could re-emerge in the coming weeks.