Is Democracy in Retreat?
Not too long ago, democracy appeared to be sweeping the world, spreading to regions of the world that had little or no experience with that form of government. In the 1980s and 1990s, democratic political systems were established in nearly all of the countries in regions such as Latin America and East Europe, regions that had little experience with democracy. Moreover, the United States and other large democracies pressured authoritarian governments in smaller countries to adopt, if not total democracy, than at least reforms that pushed those countries closer to a democratic form of government. By the beginning of the 21st century, it appeared inevitable that democracy would continue to spread and would become the dominant political system in the world.
However, things have not gone so well for those championing the spread of democracy in recent years. First, the actual spread of democracy hit a number of roadblocks, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa, where the overthrow of Saddam Hussein and the Arab Spring failed to bring the hoped-for spread of democracy to that volatile region. Second, many countries that have democratic political systems in place have seen their democracies weakened, often in favor or more authoritarian forms of government. Finally, some of the world’s most powerful and stable democracies have seen cracks appears in their democratic foundations, weakening their ability to champion their form of government. As a result, the inevitable spread of democracy appears to be on hold.
It is the rolling back of democratic practices in many countries that is proving to be the greatest threat to democracy in the present day. In fact, there are many examples of countries with democratic forms of government that are in the midst of a potential drift away from democracy in favor of more authoritarian forms of government. Most of these countries are those whose democracies are either weak or have not been in place for a prolonged period of time.
A good example of this is Russia, where President Vladimir Putin has transformed what was admittedly a very weak democratic political system and turned it in to one that he alone is able to dominate. A similar script is being followed in Turkey, where President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, once a champion of Turkish democracy, is transforming his country’s political system into one which he alone is able to control. Likewise, many countries in Southeast Asia and in Sub-Saharan Africa have either democracies that are dominated by individual political leaders or parties, or have governments that are sliding towards increasing authoritarianism. Meanwhile, while it is little surprise that democracy is at risk in countries with weak democratic backgrounds, it is more surprising that democracy is being challenged in countries with long histories of democracy. Altogether, these trends are threatening the future of democracy in many areas of the world.
A number of factors have resulted in this weakening of democracy in some countries. In fact, a number of these factors had been expected to facilitate and accelerate the spread of democracy to new areas of the world, while strengthening democracy in areas of the world where it was already in place. For example, the dramatic advancements in communications in recent decades had been expected to boost the prospects for democracy as more people were given a voice on political issues, but instead, autocrats have used their new-found ability to control communications to strengthen their grip on power.
Meanwhile, a number of other factors are contributing to the weakening of democracy in many places. One example of this is the growing threat of instability and unrest, which is boosting support for strong governments and leaders that can bolster a country’s security. Likewise, the rise in nationalist and protectionist sentiment, particularly in relatively stable democracies, is weakening support for democratic norms. At the same time, lower classes are increasingly backing more authoritarian movements due to fears that the rapidly changing global economy is leaving them with a bleak future, hence their desire for strong centralized governments that will protect their way of life. When these factors are combined, it is clear that support for strong centralized governments with enhanced defense and internal security forces is on the rise.
While democracy has suffered a number of setbacks over the past decade, it is premature to declare democracy to be in the midst of a permanent decline. For example, 17 of the world’s 20 largest countries in terms of economic output have stable, or relatively stable, democratic governments, and this remains an incentive for people living in non-democratic countries to aspire for the spread of democracy to their own countries. Moreover, the desire for democracy remains strong in most areas of the world, and it remains the preferred form of government nearly everywhere.
Nevertheless, major threats to democracy will remain firmly in place for the foreseeable future. Should democratically-elected governments fail to provide their citizens with the security and living standards that they desire, support for democracy will continue to be eroded. Meanwhile, the rising power of non-democratic countries such as China will provide a major boost for political leaders and movements that seek to bring an end to democracy in their own countries. As a result, while it is hard to imagine the collapse of democracy as the world’s leading form of governance any time soon, the threats facing the future of democracy are real, and will worsen if democratically-elected governments cannot meet the global economic and security challenges that are sure to arise in the future.