Ukraine Remains Dangerous

Russia’s intervention in the conflict in eastern Ukraine in 2014, and its seizure and annexation of Crimea that same year, was the greatest threat to European stability since the dissolution of Yugoslavia in the 1990s.  Not only was Russia able to seize control of the strategically-important Crimean Peninsula (and force the international community to more-or-less accept that this annexation was a fait accompli), but also it was able to allow pro-Russian separatists to seize control of a vital area of eastern Ukraine and to subsequently prevent the Ukrainian government regaining control of this territory.  All of this resulted in a weakening of the Ukrainian government’s power and prestige, two of the primary goals of Russia’s intervention in that conflict in 2014.  Moreover, as the West stepped in too late, there was little that the United States or its European allies could do, except to hit Russia with painful economic sanctions that did little to change the situation on the group in eastern Ukraine.  Now, after more than two years of relative stability, a new dynamic is emerging among the major players in the standoff in Ukraine, one that could result in a renewed conflict in that country.

After the Minsk II agreement in early 2015 brought an end to the full-scale conflict in eastern Ukraine, tensions remained high along the front-line in that region over the past two years, although a resumption of the conflict was avoided.  However, a number of fierce clashes between Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russian separatists have erupted along this front line in recent weeks.  Heavy fighting around the cities of Luhansk and Avdiika has resulted in dozens of deaths in what have been the biggest clashes along the front line since 2014’s conflict.  Many believe that Russia is responsible for these clashes, accusing Moscow of prodding the separatists into action to further destabilize the Ukrainian government.  In response, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has appealed to the United States and the European Union to intervene before a new full-scale conflict erupts in eastern areas of his country, but his appeals may be falling on deaf ears.

In the wake of 2014’s conflict and its loss of Crimea, Ukraine was given the opportunity to gain the economic and security support of the United States and the European Union, as neither of these powers wishes to see Russia make further gains in Ukraine.  However, a number of factors have resulted in the West’s support for Ukraine weakening in recent years.  First and foremost, the government of President Poroshenko has proven to be as corrupt as its predecessors, as Ukraine remains perhaps the European country suffering from the highest levels of corruption.  In addition, President Poroshenko has proven to be a relatively weak leader who lacks the ability to control the various interest groups, oligarchs and other entities that have left Ukraine a highly divided country.  Meanwhile, the European Union remains deeply divided over the situation in Ukraine, with some countries (most notably Poland) backing Kiev to the hilt, while many other European countries wish to see relations with Russia restored, even at the expense of Ukraine’s sovereignty.  Now, the United States government is led by President Donald Trump, who appears determined to improve US relations with Russia at nearly any expense.  All of this has combined to leave Ukraine particularly vulnerable to a new round of Russian aggression. 

For Russia, 2017 has emerged as the year of opportunity, given the fact that a seemingly pro-Russian president is now in office in the United States and as the European Union remains highly divided over how the EU should approach Russia.  In fact, Russian President Vladimir Putin has called the collapse of the Soviet Union the greatest catastrophe ever to befall Russia and clearly seeks to restore some level of Russian domination over its near-abroad.  Sure, Russia lacks the resources to occupy and annex the whole of the Ukraine.  However, Moscow clearly wants a divided Ukraine, with a weak central government and with Russia calling the shots for much, if not all, of the country.  Therefore, it is likely that Russia will back efforts by pro-Russian separatists to expand their territory in areas of Ukraine where large Russian-speaking populations are found, particularly in eastern and southern Ukraine.  As such, President Putin may view 2017 as his best, and maybe last, opportunity to seize control of more areas of Ukraine and annex them to Russia.  With this in mind, it is clear that Ukraine might prove to be 2017’s most dangerous flashpoint, one that has the potential to cause deep rifts within the Western alliance.