The Last Days of the 2016 US Presidential Election

Just a week ago, it appeared that Hillary Clinton had the race for the United States presidency in the bag as she enjoyed a more-than-6% lead in the national polls over Donald Trump, as well as a huge lead in terms of votes in the Electoral College.  Unfortunately for Clinton, she has endured a nightmarish two weeks involving a surprise re-opening of the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s e-mails by the FBI and other questions regarding past scandals involving her and her husband, former President Bill Clinton. 

At the same time, Trump has managed to win more support from Republicans that had, until recently, refused to support their party’s controversial candidate for the presidency.  As a result, Clinton’s lead over Trump in national polls has shrunk, on the average, to just 2%, a major shift over the past two weeks.  Nevertheless, time is running out for Trump to overtake his Democratic rival, as he has just six days to overcome his remaining deficit, particularly in a number of swing states in which he still trails. 

There has been a clear trend in recent days in which Donald Trump has managed to close the gap with Hillary Clinton to the point where some reputable national polls in the United States show the two candidates running nearly neck-and-neck in terms of the national popular vote.  While Clinton’s support has stagnated, or even declined slightly in recent days, Trump’s has increased thanks largely to his ability to gain more support from Republicans who had not been on board with his candidacy until now.  On the other hand, there has been a clear loss of enthusiasm among some sectors of Clinton’s support, costing her in the polls as they measure the likelihood that the people being polled will actually vote. 

For Trump, these recent gains have given his campaign hope that it can overcome what had seemed to be an insurmountable deficit and win the US presidency.  However, he still trails by a significant margin in the Electoral College, which will actually decide the winner of this most unusual election. 

If you take the current poll averages, Donald Trump has a lead in a number of key swing states, including Florida, Ohio, Arizona and Iowa, although his lead in each state is less than 2.5%.  As such, he must hold on to each of these states just to come within striking distance of Hillary Clinton, as she still as a lead of 294 to 244 over Trump in the Electoral College without any of these four key swing states in her column.  Meanwhile, there are only two other swing states in which Trump’s deficit against Clinton is less than 4% and these are North Carolina and Nevada. 

Even if Trump were to overturn his deficits in those two states, he would still trail Clinton in the Electoral College by a margin of 273 to 265.  It is hard to imagine that a Republican candidate for the US presidency could win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Iowa, and yet still be in a position to lose the election, but that is the situation Trump faces in the final days of this election campaign.

This situation shows just how difficult it will be for Donald Trump to overcome Hillary Clinton and shock the world by becoming the president of the United States, for not only does he have to win each of the aforementioned six swing states in which he is competitive, but he must also hang on to those traditionally Republicans states such as Utah and Alaska where he has been struggling in the polls.  Even if he accomplishes this, he must win at least one other swing state is which he is currently trailing by more than 4% in the polls, and this will be a tall task given the fact that the election takes place in just six days.  By this standard, there are only five such swing states that could turn the election.  These include Colorado (where Trump trails by 4.0%), New Hampshire (4.7% deficit), Virginia (5.2%), Wisconsin (5.7%) and Pennsylvania (6.0%). 

At present, it appears unlikely that Trump will be able to win any of these remaining five swing states, let along hold on to his slight leads in each of the other swing states that he needs desperately to win.  However, this has been one of the most unusual presidential elections in US history, with countless twists and turns.  As such, the world’s attention will be clearly focused on the US next Tuesday as the world’s second-largest democracy goes to the polls in what might be the most important election in modern history.