The BS in the BRICS

Not that long ago, the world was looking to the BRICS group of emerging markets to provide for much of the growth for the global economy, while these five emerging markets were to play an ever-greater political role in the world due to their growing economic clout.  Certainly, China and India continue to meet expectations, despite China’s recent slowdown and India’s struggle with internal divisions.  Meanwhile, Russia continues to play a greater role in many of the leading political and security issues facing the world today, despite its recent economic woes.  However, two of the BRICS group of emerging markets, Brazil and South Africa, have undoubtedly failed live up to expectations on the political and economic fronts in recent years.  For both countries, much of the blame lies with their political leadership, which has led both countries astray.  Unfortunately, this poor political leadership has caused great harm to both countries and could result in long-term loss of power and influence.

Let’s start with Brazil.  The recent impeachment vote against President Dilma Rousseff in that country highlights just how far that country’s current government has fallen in recent years.  In fact, since taking office, President Rousseff has been beset by a host of problems, many of which are the fault of her and her party’s leadership.  The biggest problem has been corruption, as the massive Petrobras scandal has cost the government and the president most of their support and credibility.  Meanwhile, this scandal has contributed to the loss of confidence in the Brazilian economy that has contributed to that country’s current recession which is among the worst in Brazil’s recent history.  Not that long ago, Brazil believed that it was poised for a long period of China-like rates of economic growth that would allow the country to play a dominant role in Latin America and to have a major voice on the world stage.  Instead, under President Rousseff and her government, Brazil has fallen further behind most of the world’s other leading powers in terms of political power and economic development.

South Africa, the smallest of the BRICS (and the least qualified for membership in such a group) has also found itself backsliding in recent years.  This has been due in no small part to the disastrous leadership of President Jacob Zuma and the deep divisions that have emerged in that country’s dominant political party, the African National Congress (ANC).  Of course, low natural resource prices have severely hurt the South African economy.  However, the current government there has failed to take the steps needed to diversify the country’s economy away from its dependence upon natural resource exports, rolling back many of the programs that had been enacted by its predecessors.  Meanwhile, President Zuma too has faced a number of corruption scandals in recent years that have weakened his ability to government South Africa.  As a result of these economic struggles and corruption scandals, South Africa has found it more difficult to play the leading role in Sub-Saharan Africa that it has done since the end of apartheid.  

The problems facing Brazil and South Africa are clear examples of how poor governance can squander the massive economic and resource advantages that a few lucky countries possess.  In Brazil, President Rousseff’s disastrous leadership has resulted in Brazil failing to take advantage of its huge resource and demographic advantages that are in many ways similar to that of other large “New World” economies.  Meanwhile, the resource and infrastructure advantages that South Africa has over many of its emerging market rivals are being squandered by President Zuma’s repeated missteps, resulting in South Africa losing political clout in its region, while seeing its economic lead over its neighbors shrink.  While both presidents are nearing the end of their reigns, both countries have the opportunity to elect more capable leaders.  Nevertheless, the opportunities wasted by both countries could have long-term consequences, both within their borders and across their respective regions.