The Political Future of the European Union

Over the past seven years, much of the focus on the European Union has been centered on the economic slowdown in the EU and the ongoing debt crisis in Greece.  This focus on the economic problems facing much of the European Union has taken away from the political issues facing the EU.  Prior to the crisis, much of the debate inside the European Union was focused on the pace of political integration, with some member states calling for a deeper union, while others desired that the EU remain primarily a free trade area.  Now, a number of issues inside and outside of the European Union are forcing the EU to once again consider its political future, even as the economic situation in Europe remains very uncertain.

Internally, two key political issues are likely to determine the political direction of the European Union in the coming years.  First, the rise of political parties opposed to European integration has continued unabated in a large number of EU member states and these political parties continue to gain in support and are now either the first- or second-most popular parties in Greece, Spain, France and a host of other EU member states.  Second, Britain’s upcoming election will play a major role in the political future of the EU, as a Conservative victory in the UK will lead to a referendum on Britain’s EU membership.  Meanwhile, two key external issues have also forced the European Union to focus on its political future.  First, Russia’s efforts to re-establish a dominant position in its near-abroad has led it to go to war in Ukraine, while threatening many of its European neighbors, some of whom are EU member states.  Second, the worsening migrant situation in the Mediterranean Sea has brought home the fact that anarchy and unrest are increasingly present in the countries to the south and the east of the European Union.

While a number of current issues have forced the European Union to refocus on its political future, a number of longer-term challenges will severely strain the EU’s ability to become a more cohesive political entity.   For example, the defense capabilities of nearly all EU member states have fallen dramatically over the past 25 years to the point where the EU has little or no power projection capabilities outside of its borders.  This has strained Europe’s relations with its leading international partner, the United States, whose defense capabilities now dwarf those of the EU.  With the US likely to continue to shift its focus and resources towards Asia, Europe’s long-term security is far from assured, particularly as the prospects for stability in East Europe, North Africa and the Middle East are so poor.  While a few EU member states are belatedly coming to the realization that their neighborhood is not as secure as they had once believed, others, most notably Germany, seem unwilling to commit themselves to boosting European security levels and this issue is deeply divided the EU.

These challenges, coupled with the fact that Europe’s demographic decline is almost certain to accelerate, present a major challenge for the political future of the European Union.  This demographic decline is one of the key reasons why the long-term economic outlook for the EU is so poor and without higher rates of economic growth, political tensions within the EU are likely to worsen.  Moreover, the long-term political outlook for the regions on the periphery of the European Union is quite poor and this will add to the pressure facing many EU member states in terms of security and immigration.  With these challenges mounting, opposition to further integration within the EU could continue to rise, particularly if European voters blame the EU for their economic struggles and reduced security.  As a result, the European Union faces a very uncertain political future and its unity is far from assured.