A Weekend Full of Elections

In what has been a relatively quiet year for major elections, this past weekend featured no less than seven national elections and a national referendum.  These elections ranged from hard fought battles in mid-sized emerging markets such as Poland and Argentina to three interesting elections in Sub-Saharan Africa and two elections in Latin America that were dominated by massive corruption scandals.  Altogether, this has been the busiest election weekend in the world in 2015 and is bringing to an end a month that has seen a number of very interesting elections results around the world.

One election that is certain to have a major impact on the political situation in Europe was last weekend’s parliamentary elections in Poland.  Here, the conservative Law and Justice party made major gains in terms of support in recent months, despite the fact that nine years of rule by the centrist Civic Platform resulted in Poland having Europe’s most successful economic during that period.  Nevertheless, the scale of the Law and Justice party’s victory in these parliamentary elections caught most observers by surprise and now this deeply conservative party becomes the first political party in post-Communist Poland to hold a majority of the seats in the parliament.  This is likely to have a major impact inside the European Union, as the new government is likely to be very Eurosceptic.  For example, Poland’s ability to work together with Germany (which has worked well in recent years) could be damaged by the abrasive style of the new government.  Meanwhile, relations with Russia are likely to further worsen given the new government’s hostility towards Moscow and this could raise tensions between Russia and the EU in the coming months.

Of the three elections that took place last weekend in Latin America, Argentina’s presidential election proved to be the most surprising.  With 12 years of rule by the Kirchner family coming to an end as President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner prepares to leave office, her hand-picked successor, the center-left candidate Daniel Scioli, had been expected to win this election outright in the first round of voting.  However, it appears that he barely won more of the vote than his center-right rival Mauricio Macri in the first round of voting and will now have to face Mr. Macri in a run-off election next month.  This places the third place finisher Sergio Massa (a former ally of President Kirchner) in a powerful position as the two leading candidates will be vying for his endorsement in what could prove to be a highly contentious few weeks in Argentine politics.  Add to this mix a slumping Argentine economy and the next few weeks will prove pivotal for that country’s near-term future. 

Elsewhere in Latin America, a former television comedian, Jimmy Morales, won a crushing victory over former First Lady Sandra Torres in the second round of voting in Guatemala’s president election.  Mr. Morales’ anti-corruption platform was the key to his victory as this election took place amid a massive corruption scandal that led to the resignation and arrest of that country’s former President Otto Perez Molina last month.  Meanwhile, 56 candidates took part in last weekend’s presidential election in Haiti that was surprisingly free from violence, although tensions could rise as the results from this election could take up to one month to tabulate.  All three of these elections in Latin America were dominated by the issues of corruption as well as the region’s recent economic troubles; issues that will continue to dominate the agenda in Latin America in the coming months.

Finally, two presidential elections and a national referendum took place last weekend in Sub-Saharan Africa.  In Tanzania, the long-dominant Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party was facing its greatest challenge to its 54-years in power in the form of the new Ukawa coalition.  The results that will be announced later this week are expected to show the closest election race in that country’s history.  In Cote d’Ivoire, the results have yet to be announced in that country’s presidential election, but there is little doubt that President Alassane Ouattara will win the first election there since that country’s civil war ended in 2011.  Finally, voters went to the polls in Congo-Brazzaville to vote in a referendum on constitutional changes that would allow President Denis Sassou Nguesso to seek a third term in office, an issue that has sparked violent protests in that country in recent months.  Given the fact that the political opposition boycotted this referendum, these changes are likely to be approved, albeit by a small share of the electorate in that country.