The War Against the IS Spreads to Syria

The United States and a number of its Arab allies extended their war against the Islamic State (IS) militant group to Syria this week by launching airstrikes on IS bases in that country.  Given the determination of the US and many of its allies to destroy the Islamic State before it can become an even bigger threat to global security, it was just a matter of time before the war against the IS moved from Iraq to Syria.  Nevertheless, the extension of the war to Syria creates a whole new range of complications for the United States and for the Middle East and these will make the war against the IS a challenging struggle.

 

Until this week, the United States had concentrated its efforts on rolling back the Islamic State militants in Iraq where they had many major territorial gains prior to the intervention of the US last month.  While the US has launched nearly 200 airstrikes on IS targets in Iraq, the inability of Iraqi and Kurdish ground forces to effectively go on the offensive against the IS has allowed the militants to continue to control much of that country.  This is in large part the result of the ability of the Islamic State to use northern and eastern Syria as a base of operations for their offensives in both Iraq and Syria.  As a result, the US and its allies had little choice but to carry the war to the IS’ strongholds in Syria, including its headquarters in the city of Raqqa.

 

Extending the war against the Islamic State to Syria adds a whole new dimension to the conflict.  This is due to the fact that Syria remains mired in a long-running civil war, pitting the government of President Bashar Assad against a wide range of rebel groups who often are fighting one another as much as they are fighting against the Assad regime.  Given the opposition to the Assad regime in the US and much of the Arab world, there is little chance for a cooperative effort between the Syrian government and the US-led coalition to destroy the Islamic State in Syria.  Instead, the US and its allies appear determined to fight the war against the IS on their own, while at the same time, supplying moderate rebel forces in Syria for their fight against the Assad regime.  This will be a very difficult balancing act for the US-led coalition to maintain and is unlikely to bring a swift end to Syria’s misery.

 

The complications in the war against the Islamic State extend beyond the conflict zones in Iraq and Syria as well.  For example, while all of the major powers in the Middle East are staunchly opposed to the Islamic State, they are deeply distrustful of one another as well.  For example, Turkey fears a spread of the Islamic State across its borders, but at the same time, is deeply opposed to many of the Kurdish forces battling the militants in northern Syria and Iraq.  In addition, relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia, the two leading regional military powers around the conflict zone, are less than cordial and there is a significant rivalry between the two countries.  Meanwhile, Iran is keen to see the Islamic State destroyed as well, given its support for Shiite (and Alawite) populations in Iraq and Syria.  However, neither the United States nor many of its Arab allies are willing to work together with Iran at present given their concerns over Iranian ambitions in the region.

 

These local and regional complications highlight why the US-led coalition is likely to experience a number of difficulties in defeating the Islamic State.  Militarily, the US-led coalition has an overwhelming advantage over the IS, even after the militants’ were able to seize so many weapons from the Syrian and Iraqi armies in recent months.  However, the key to the war will be the ability of the US-led coalition to convince large elements of the Sunni populations in Syria and Iraq to turn against the Islamic State.  Without this support, the US and others will be forced to commit large numbers of ground forces to the region, something they are unwilling to do at the moment.