Does Trump Want Allies?
No president of the United States has done more to shake up his country’s foreign policy than Donald Trump has during his first 17 months in office. Since taking office in January 2017, President Trump has turned on many of his country’s closest and longest-standing allies, while at the same time, coddling the leaders of some of the United States leading rivals, including one who has recently developed nuclear weapons with the aim of being able to strike the US. Of course, changes in US foreign policy are to be expected as a multipolar world re-emerges for the first time since the Second World War. Even President Trump’s “America First” policies are deeply rooted in many of the policies enacted by governments throughout the history of the US. Nevertheless, even as a multipolar world develops, the United States remains the world’s most powerful country by a wide margin, and thus, these changes in US foreign policy have massive repercussions for friends and foes of the US alike.
One question that has been raised in the wake of President Trump’s vociferous attacks on countries once considered close allies of the United States has been whether or not he has any interest in the US maintaining alliances with friendly countries. In fact, to some, it appears that he favors vassal states to allies and judges a country’s friendship with the US by how much they are willing to align themselves with US interests alone. Some historians have compared President Trump’s foreign policy to that of German foreign policy under Kaiser Wilhelm II, who’s personal vendettas cost Germany the chance to secure alliances with Britain and Russia, and, instead, left Germany fighting a two-front war in the First World War. Of course, early 21st century America is far more powerful than early 20th century Germany, and the balance of global power is much different than in 1914, but the US still needs allies to advance its interests in many fields.
It appears that President Trump intends to continue with his highly personalized foreign policy, regardless of the implications for long-term US interests, and this is important because he appears to have strong feelings regarding a number of the US’ international partners. In fact, under President Trump, relations between the United States and a number of its closest allies are at their lowest point in modern times.
Americas: In the Americas, the United States has always played a dominant role, but under President Trump, relations between the US and many of the leading powers in the region have become incredibly strained, often as a result of comments made by the US president. This is most evident in President Trump’s relations with Canada, where despite a largely even trade balance and a long-history of political, security and economic cooperation, the US president has decided to treat his northern neighbor as if the War of 1812 was still underway, placing great strain on what has been one of the world’s most successful bilateral relationships.
Europe: As for Europe, it is clear that President Trump has little respect for the US’ leading allies, or their leaders, in this region and while this continues a trend of declining US interest in Europe, under President Trump, US-European relations have reached a new low. Moreover, while his criticisms of German defense or economic policy can be understood, his refusal to support long-time US ally Britain has clearly caught London by surprise. In fact, many European leaders are finding themselves confronted by a future in which the United States will no longer guarantee their region’s security.
Asia-Pacific: While the relations with US allies in the Americas and Europe have been damaged, these countries have little choice but to stick with the United States. In contrast, it is in Asia where President Trump may have caused the most damage to US allies, many of whom now fear being abandoned by the United States at a time when China’s military and economic power is on the rise. His withdrawal of the US from the largely US-designed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal was rightly condemned by most economists and historians, while his dealings with North Korea have so far only brought concessions from the US side. Now, the United States stands on the verge of a trade war with China, one that might force the US’ allies in Asia to choose sides between the world’s two most powerful countries.
As the United States’ relations with many of its long-time allies have suffered severe strains in recent years, it appears that President Trump is attempting to move his country closer to many of the US’ long-time rivals and challengers. Some critics have even charged that President Trump’s foreign policy seems to have been drafted by Russian President Vladimir Putin, rather than the US State Department or the NSA, as despite Russia’s economic, political and demographic woes, it has been able to benefit more than any other country from the divisions between the US and its key allies, particularly in Europe. Meanwhile, the US president’s chummy behavior with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un disgusted many who are opposed to the human rights abuses and efforts to develop nuclear weapons carried out under his leadership. In the Middle East, President Trump appears to want good relations with everyone apart from Iran, but has stoked controversy through his moving of the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem and his support for dictators across the region. Altogether, these efforts to improve relations with the United States’ long-time rivals appears to have gained very little for the US, while allowing these rivals to significantly strengthen their position vis-à-vis the United States.
Without question, President Trump has done more to shake up international politics than any leader in modern US history. Under his leadership, many of the United States long-time alliances are fraying, often due to the president’s perception that these allies have become over-dependent upon US military protection, or that they are taking advantage of US goodwill in today’s system of international trade and investment. Of course, these relationships were weakening before President Trump took office, as the emergence of multipolar world forced to US to look more closely after its own interests. However, this drifting apart of the US and many of its main allies has dramatically accelerated in recent months. This is opening significant opportunities for the US’ leading rivals in the modern world, particularly China and Russia, with the former moving to assert its leadership in Asia and the latter seeking to re-establish its influence in Europe and its near-abroad.
Meanwhile, it is unclear if President Trump understands grand strategy, or how his decisions impact the United States’ place in the world. As his foreign policy is highly personal, this is important, for while he is not the first US president to have little background in foreign affairs, his influence on US foreign policy is greater than that of most of his predecessors. So far, President Trump has shown little but disdain for many of the US’ leading international partners, while creating opportunities for many of its leading foes, a trend that, if it continues, could dramatically alter global political and security for years to come.