Europe's Internal and External Security Threats

While Europe has faced many threats to its security since the end of the Second World War, the region has never faced such an array of serious internal and external threats as it does today.  Internally, deepening divisions over European Union policy-making, the rising power of Germany within the EU, the inability to integrate the region’s minorities and the threat of terrorism are all threatening to end the region’s move towards greater integration and enhanced security.  Externally, the collapse of states across the Middle East and North Africa, the reduction in US interests in Europe and the revanchist policies of Russia have all led to major threats arising along Europe’s periphery.  Unfortunately most of these internal and external threats to European security appear likely to worsen in the months and years ahead.  For Europe, the key issue will be whether or not Europe, either as a whole or as a group of individual powers, is willing or capable of managing this multitude of threats.

A series of mistakes and missteps has led to Europe facing some of its most serious internal threats in recent decades.  Many of these threats stem from the fact that the European Union has failed to achieve the level of unity needed to deal with some of the most tricky issues facing the region, often as a result of national priorities taking precedent in the region’s larger countries.  Moreover, the region’s economic struggles have awoken old tensions that were buried by decades of prosperity.  For example, a number of countries have failed to integrate the ethnic or religious minorities that have entered their borders since the end of the Second World War, creating internal tensions that have risen as the region’s economy has worsened, leading to high levels of joblessness and poverty among many of these minority populations.  These tensions have been exacerbated by Europe’s recent migration crisis, with has added dramatically to the numbers of ethnic and religious minorities in the region, particularly in Germany, Sweden and Greece.  Finally, the recent terrorist attacks in France and Belgium highlight the threat that disaffected and un-integrated minorities, combined with uncontrolled immigration, can pose to open societies such as those found in much of Europe. 

While Europe’s internal threats have risen significantly in recent years, so too have the scale and the complexity of its external threats.  Despite the wars in the former Yugoslavia, the end of the Cold War ushered in an unparalleled period of peace around Europe’s periphery, enabling Europe to focus on internal issues and to dramatically reduce spending on defense, security and intelligence.  However, as Europe’s neighborhood has grown much more dangerous, this reduced level of defense, security and intelligence capabilities has left Europe highly vulnerable to these new external threats.  To the east, a revanchist Russia is making trouble for Europe from the Baltic to the Black Sea.  To the south, North Africa and the Middle East are now filled with conflict and failed states, leading to a flow of people, weapons and militant ideologies northwards towards Europe.  In the meantime, Europe’s leading ally, the United States, is less focused on Europe than at any time in its recent history, preferring to focus on the rising powers of Asia.  As a result, Europe is facing these mounting external threats with less military, security and intelligence resources than ever before.  As a result, political and security risk levels in Europe are now at their highest levels in decades, and are unlikely to come down anytime soon.