A Change of Direction in Canada

Despite trailing in the polls for most of the year, the centrist Liberal Party surged in the final weeks of the campaign to win Canada’s parliamentary elections and bring an end to nine years of rule by Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Conservative government.  Thanks to their comprehensive victory, the Liberals will be able to form a stable government with a majority in the House of Commons, and Prime Minister-designate Justin Trudeau, the son of former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, will lead the country’s new government.  On one hand, this election proved that Canada remains a very centrist country, as the move to the right by the Conservative government and the move to the left by the opposition New Democrats hurt both parties’ chances of winning this election, despite the fact that both parties had led in the polls at some point in recent months.  While the new government is likely to maintain its position at the center of Canadian politics, some significant changes are likely nevertheless.

These parliamentary elections had been expected to be a close-fought race.  Earlier in the year, the opposition left-wing New Democrats had been on top in many of the polls, but they lost a great deal of support in Quebec and this cost them dearly in the election itself.  Likewise, the governing Conservatives had been at or near the top of the polls until the final weeks of the campaign and had maintained some small hopes of emerging victorious again.  However, it was a late surge by the opposition centrist Liberals that swung the election in their favor.  In the end, the Liberals won 39.5% of the popular vote and 184 of the 338 seats in the House of Commons, a massive increase from the 18.9% of the vote and 34 seats that they won in 2011’s elections.  In contrast, the Conservatives saw their share of the vote decline from 39.6% in 2011 to 31.9% this time around and, as a result, their number of seats in the House of Commons fell from 166 to 99.  As for the New Democrats, their collapse in the final weeks of the campaign was dramatic, as their share of the vote fell from 30.6% in 2011 to just 19.7% this year, with their number of seats falling from 103 to just 44. 

The Liberals were able to win this election so comprehensively as a result of a number of factors.  Most importantly, the Canadian economy that has outperformed most other developed economies since the global financial crisis fell on hard times over the past year due to falling oil and commodity prices and this damaged the Conservatives’ reputation for sound economic management.  Moreover, the Conservatives’ hard line on security and foreign policy issues did not sit well with many Canadians, particular those in the east of the country, which enabled the Liberals to make major gains there.  Finally, the dramatic collapse of support for the New Democrats allowed the Liberals to win a large share of the center-left vote in these elections, and, with the Conservatives shifting the right, allowed the Liberals to dominate the very large political center in Canada.

While Canada is undoubtedly one of the most centrist countries in the world, there will still be a number of major policy changes enacted by the new Liberal government.  Domestically, the new government will certainly repeal many of the more socially conservative legislation enacted by their Conservative predecessors, while doing more to combat climate change and protect the environment.  Economically, the new government’s ability to enact new policies is likely to be restricted over the near-term due to the ongoing struggle with low natural resource prices, but a less-oil-centric economic policy is likely to be implemented.  On the foreign front, Canada’s new prime minister is expected to get along well with United States President Barack Obama, as his viewpoints closely align with those of the current US president.  However, Prime Minister-designate Trudeau has already announced that Canada will be withdrawing its fighter planes from the US-led coalition battling the Islamic State militant group in Syria and Iraq.  Whatever happens in the coming months, change is coming to Canada after nine years of Conservative government amid a difficult economic and international environment.