Germany's Upcoming Election

Many of this year’s most interesting elections have taken place, or will take place, in Europe.  Of these, the most important election without a doubt is the national election that will take place next month in Germany.  This is due not only to the fact that Germany is Europe’s leading economic power, but also because German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Europe’s most powerful political leader by a wide margin.  This election is taking place at a very critical juncture in the history of both Germany and the European Union, the organization in which Germany is the leading power.  Both Germany and the EU are facing deep internal divisions over a number of issues that are pulling the country and the EU in different directions.  In addition, both Germany and the European Union are facing external threats that could severely damage their unity and the cohesiveness.  As such, German voters will play a major role in determining the direction of Europe in next month’s elections.

The Polls: Earlier this year, the junior member of Germany’s ruling grand coalition government, the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), were emboldened when polls showed that they were as popular as Chancellor Merkel’s center-right CDU-CSU alliance for the first time in many years.  However, the SPD’s fortunes have waned dramatically in recent months and according to the most recent polls, they will receive less than 25% of the vote in next month’s elections.  In contrast, the CDU-CSU alliance has managed to rebuild their large lead and they are now polling at just below 40%.  In the meantime, four other political parties are polling at between 7% and 10%, enough to qualify for representation in the parliament after these elections.  These parties are, in the order of their current polling numbers, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), the former communist Left (Die Linke), the center-right Free Democrats (FDP) and the left-wing Greens.  As no party appears set to win an outright majority of the seats in the parliament, another coalition government will need to be formed in the wake of these elections.

The Issues: A number of key issues have so far dominated the election campaign in Germany.  The most contentious issue thus far has been immigration, as Chancellor Merkel has been criticized for her decision in 2015 to allow more than a million migrants and refugees from the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa to settle in Germany.  Tied to that issue is another subject that is being hotly debated in Germany, that of security, particularly in the wake of the past year’s terrorist attacks in both Germany and across Europe.  Foreign policy is also moving to the fore in this election, as many Germans are concerned about their country’s relations with the Trump Administration in the United States, as well as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s designs on Europe.  In fact, the future of the European Union is also a significant issue in this election, especially as the negotiations over the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU are underway.  Finally, the economy, while always an important issue in national elections, has so far proven not to be too big of a topic thus far in Germany’s election campaign, likely due to the fact that the German economy has grown at a steady pace in recent years and the country’s unemployment rate is near just 4%.

The Prediction: So, how will this upcoming election play out?  It is clear that Chancellor Merkel’s CDU-CSU alliance is going to win the largest number of seats in the parliament.  Likewise, the SPD, led by former European Union official Martin Schulz, is all but certain to finish in a distant second place.  Should this be the result, neither the CDU-CSU nor the SPD may be eager to re-form yet another grand coalition government.  Instead, the CDU-CSU may turn to one of the four smaller parties that is likely to win seats in the parliament.  Should the Free Democrats win enough seats to form a coalition with the CDU-CSU, that would be the coalition that would most likely be formed as the two parties generally complement one another.  However, should that not be the case, the CDU-CSU might turn to the Greens as a potential coalition partner, despite many ideological differences between the two sides.  Earlier, when the SPD’s poll numbers were much better, some SPD officials had floated the idea of forming a left-wing government together with the Greens and the former Communists in the Left Party. However, this result looks much less likely according to recent polls.  Instead, there are unlikely to be too many surprises in this election, and the most likely outcome remains the creation of yet another grand coalition government, once again led by Chancellor Merkel.