The World's Next Humanitarian Disasters

The past few years have witnessed some horrific humanitarian disasters that have destabilized dozens of countries around the world and impacted the lives of hundreds of millions of people.  Some of these humanitarian crises have been caused by the seemingly-never-ending conflicts that have raged across a wide swathe of Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia.  Some have been the result of adverse weather conditions that have reduced agricultural output, while others have been caused by the spread of disease.  In addition, economic mismanagement has resulted in humanitarian disasters in a number of formerly well-off countries. 

While most of these crises have been the result of short-term factors, it is also true that long-term population growth in areas of the world with high degrees of instability and limited access to natural resources has played a major role in allowing these crises to develop.  Worse, despite the best efforts of the international community, it is highly likely that new humanitarian crises will arise, while some of the existing crises will worsen in the months and years ahead. 

Below are ten humanitarian crises that could worsen in the coming months: 

• Congo-Kinshasa: Over the past 25 years, Congo-Kinshasa has suffered from two catastrophic conflicts that led to between three and six million deaths and involved most of the country’s neighbors.  Unfortunately, as President Joseph Kabila attempts to cling to power, conditions are ripe for yet another conflict in that giant, but unstable, country.

• Venezuela: Unlike most countries on this list, Venezuela is blessed with amble natural resources and relatively stable borders.  Unfortunately, it is also cursed with what might be the most incompetent government on the planet.  The recent flood of Venezuelans entering neighboring Colombia and Brazil might just be the tip of the iceberg as what was once Latin America’s most successful economy continues to collapse.

• Bangladesh: There are nearly 700,000 Muslim Rohingya refugees from Myanmar living in squalid camps in southern Bangladesh.  As the monsoon season approaches, these refugees are exposed to potential tropical storms and devastating floods, while Myanmar stalls on implementing an agreement to repatriate many of these Rohingya refugees.

• South Sudan: The world’s newest country also happens to be one of its most unstable, with two rival political movements and a host of different ethnic groups battling for power and influence in that country.  Since its independence in 2011, as many as 300,000 people have been killed in internal conflicts, with more than two million people being displaced, and this unrest could worsen in the months ahead.

• Yemen: Yemen’s devastating civil war shows no signs of abating as Houthi rebels remain in control of much of northern and central Yemen, and as a coalition that includes Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates remains in control of much of southern Yemen.  With little resources and one of the world’s fastest-growing populations, Yemen will struggle to find stability in the months and years ahead.

• Lake Chad Basin: The area around the rapidly-shrinking Lake Chad includes parts of Nigeria, Cameroon, Niger and Chad and is one of the world’s most unstable regions.  The Boko Haram insurgency has already destabilized this region in recent years, but a soaring population and scant resources could make matters much worse.

• North Korea: While hopes are rising that North Korea can end its near-total isolation amid plans for a summit with the United States, the fact is that North Korea’s economy faces a potential collapse should it lose access to the Chinese market, or suffer a sharp fall in agricultural output.  If talks with the US fail, the threat of a conflict in North Korea will also rise significantly.

• Gaza: Cut off from the rest of the world by Israel and Egypt, Gaza is akin to a prison, only one where the population is growing at an unsustainable rate.  As living conditions in Gaza continue to deteriorate, the potential for a new conflict with Israel will rise, one that would certainly cause a massive humanitarian crisis in that overcrowded territory.

• Afghanistan: The Afghan government’s ability to exercise direct rule or to bring stability to many areas of Afghanistan continues to deteriorate, bringing with it the threat to much higher levels of instability, or even a Taliban victory in that country’s conflict.  This would lead to a major humanitarian crisis in a country where the population continues to rise dramatically.

• Central African Republic: As one of the poorest countries in the world, the Central African Republic is already suffering from a number of humanitarian problems.  Should the country’s religious and ethnic divisions ignite a new conflict, it could also face a devastating humanitarian crisis.

Many factors are fueling these potential humanitarian disasters.  For some countries, conflicts that were expected to last months have instead persisted for a number of years, and many of these conflicts appear to be far from over, resulting in the displacing of millions of people and the devastation of the local economy and infrastructure.  In addition, many of these at-risk countries have some of the world’s fastest-growing populations, and this is leading to increasing competition for resources such as water and arable land as most of these at-risk countries are desperately poor. 

At the same time, many of the wealthiest and most powerful members of the international community are turning increasingly inwards, choosing to focus on domestic issues rather than international ones, leaving a void in terms of peacekeeping and aid.  In fact, there are so many humanitarian crises at the moment in the world today that the international community’s ability and will to tackle these crises has been stretched too thinly.  Should a few more humanitarian crises arise in the coming months and years, the international community may find itself unable and unwilling to move to bring an end to these crises.  However, the rest of the world may find that keeping these disasters within the borders of the countries where they are taking place is all but impossible.