ISA Coronavirus Update (16th of April)

Daily Summary

The number of new cases of the coronavirus (Covid-19) being diagnosed around the world has been rising at a very steady pace of around 80,000 per day over the past week, bringing the total number of global cases to nearly 2.1 million.  Of course, the actual number of cases is certainly much higher, particularly in developing countries where very little testing has been done.

Meanwhile, the daily increase in coronavirus-related fatalities has slowly been increasing and has risen to an average of 8,000 per day in recent days.  The total number of fatalities worldwide is now almost 135,000, but again, the actual number of fatalities is likely to be significantly higher.

The average of new cases of the coronavirus being diagnosed in Europe and North America has hovered around 30,000 per day in each region in recent days, as hopes rise that the peak of this wave of the pandemic has been reached in both regions.

An increasing number of scientists and government leaders have warned that large-scale public events such as concerts, festivals and sporting events will not be able to take place until sometime next year due to the lack of a vaccine for the coronavirus.  If true, this could devastate many sectors of the sporting industry, the arts and many cultural institutions.

Key Developments

Counting the Economic Costs: We have once again reduced our GDP growth forecasts for the global economy in 2020 (it is now -2.8%), with some of the steepest declines in economic output being realized in Italy, France, Argentina and Germany.

Back to School: A number of countries, most notably Germany, have announced plans to reopen at least some of their schools in the coming weeks as confidence has grown that the worst phase of this wave of the pandemic has passed.

Trend to Watch

Countries in Central and Eastern Europe have, until recently, managed to keep the number of coronavirus cases in that region relatively low.  However, the number of cases in that region has been rising sharply in recent days, particularly in Russia.

The Coming Days

The debate over removing some of the lockdown measures that have been put in place in countries around the world will intensify as fears over the impact that these measures are having on the global economy, and society, continue to mount.