ISA Coronavirus Update (26th of May)

Daily Summary

The number of diagnosed cases of the coronavirus (Covid-19) worldwide continued to rise by an average of 100,000 per day and the number of cases has now surpassed the 5.6 million mark.  Meanwhile, the number of global fatalities linked to the pandemic is now more than 348,000.

The number of cases of the coronavirus in the United States rose to more than 1.7 million this week, while the number of fatalities in the US neared the 100,000 mark.  Despite these numbers, many US states continued to relax their lockdown restrictions, while large numbers of people headed to US beaches, parks and other public places over the Memorial Day weekend.

South Africa has emerged as the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in Sub-Saharan Africa, as it now has three times as many diagnosed cases of the virus (23,615) as the next-ranked country (Nigeria).  Within South Africa, Cape Town is home to the largest number of cases, due in part to the fact that many cases were brought to that city by travelers from Europe.  

The United Nations warned that Yemen’s already-battered healthcare system has collapsed as a result of the fast-spreading coronavirus pandemic in that country. As a result, hospitals and other medical centers across Yemen have had to turn away people who suspect that they have contracted the coronavirus.

Key Developments

2020 GDP Forecast Revised Downwards: We revised our forecast for global economic growth in 2020 downwards again.  Now, we forecast that the global economy will shrink by 3.3% in 2020, which would represent the largest annual decline in global economic output since the Great Depression.

The US Restricts Travelers from Brazil: This week, the United States imposed travel restrictions on anyone who has been to Brazil in the past 14 days.  This was a bitter blow for Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, as he has championed his close relationship with US President Donald Trump.

Trend to Watch

In Europe, an increasing number of countries are introducing plans to begin reopening their borders in the coming days and weeks as the number of new coronavirus cases being found in that region continues to trend downwards.