ISA Coronavirus Update (11th of June)

Daily Summary

The number of official cases of the coronavirus (Covid-19) worldwide approached 7.5 million, while the number of official fatalities linked to the pandemic neared 420,000.  Both figures are believed to severely underestimate the extent of the pandemic, due in large part to a lack of accurate data from emerging markets.

The largest numbers of new coronavirus cases came from Brazil, the United States and India, which together accounted for 66,000 new cases yesterday.  While the number of new cases being found in Brazil and India continues to rise, the figures for the United States are trending downwards, but at a very slow pace as the number of new cases in some US states is now rising.

While the United States is now home to more than two million cases of the coronavirus, it has been fortunate that its healthcare infrastructure was better prepared to deal with this pandemic than most others. This is reflected in the relatively low fatality rate for the coronavirus in the US, despite the lack of universal healthcare and high rates of obesity-related illnesses in the US.

The number of coronavirus cases in Russia surpassed 500,000 yesterday, giving that country the third-highest number of cases in the world.  However, Russia’s government claims that only 6,532 people have died from the coronavirus, a figure that has been disputed by most experts.

Key Developments

Longer-Term Economic Concerns: In recent days, a number of central banks and think tanks have warned that the prospects for a quick turnaround for the global economy in the second half of this year and in 2021 has lessened, with many warning that a downturn could last until 2022.

Testing Numbers Rise Slowly: Despite many government’s vowing to dramatically increase the level of testing for the coronavirus, no large country has managed to test more than 10% of their population so far as testing numbers have risen much more slowly than had been hoped.

Trend to Watch

The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that the coronavirus is spreading much more rapidly in Africa than official data suggests.  While many countries have donated medical equipment to Africa, it remains woefully unprepared for more cases.

The Coming Days

Despite the fact that the number of coronavirus cases continues to rise sharply, national and local governments in Brazil have authorized shopping malls and other public places to reopen, raising fears of higher numbers of coronavirus cases in the coming weeks.