US-Israeli Relations on the Rocks

Relations between the United States and Israel have had many ups and downs in recent decades, but the two countries have remained strong allies despite a number of key differences.  However, relations between the United States and Israel have grown increasingly strained in recent years, due in large part to the personal animosity between United States President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.  Moreover, changing internal dynamics within both countries are resulting in the two countries drifting further apart, a trend that seems likely to continue, albeit with the ups and downs that have long characterized bilateral relations between the two sides.

This week’s speech by Prime Minister Netanyahu before a joint session of the US Congress has proven to be one of the most controversial speeches even made by a foreign leader in the United States.  This was due to the fact that both the Republicans that control the US Congress and Prime Minister Netanyahu ignored President Obama’s wish that this speech not take place when it did.  The fact that President Obama, and most Democrats in Congress, were opposed to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s speech appears to be turning US-Israeli relations into a partisan issue, something that ensures that the up-and-down nature of US-Israeli relations will grow more pronounced in the future.  Moreover, the fact that Prime Minister Netanyahu focused his speech on Iran’s nuclear program was seen by the Obama Administration as outside interference in its efforts to work with the international community to reach a deal with Iran on its nuclear program.

In the United States, the issue of Israel is not a major factor in determining the voting intensions of the US public for all but a small minority of voters.  Nevertheless, deep divisions within the US public are emerging when it comes to US attitudes towards Israel.  As we have noted, most Republicans now favor almost unlimited backing for Israel and its efforts to defend its territory, to expand Jewish settlements in the West Bank and to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear program.  On the other hand, many Democrats support Israel’s right to defend itself from external threats, but have grown concerned about Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians and its continued settlement building activities.  Meanwhile, recent polls have shown that older Americans tend to overwhelmingly favor strong US-Israeli ties, whereas younger Americans are much less likely to unconditionally support Israel.  For Israel, this is a particularly worrying trend as this poses a long-term threat to the US’ support for Israel.

Internal factors in Israel are also threatening to further damage relations between the United States and Israel in the coming years.  For example, the influx of Jews from the former Soviet Union over the past 25 years into Israel has tipped the balance of power in that country towards more nationalist elements, resulting in the powerful Likud Party moving much further to the right in recent years and the creation of influential new nationalist political parties.  Meanwhile, the soaring birthrate among Orthodox Jews in Israel is also weakening more moderate elements of Israeli society and marginalizing them within Israeli politics.  With Israeli governments now taking a harder line towards issues such as the Palestinian question and Jewish settlements in the West Bank, they are alienating themselves from many of their former supporters in the United States.  If these trends continue, Israel’s position in a very volatile Middle East could become much more tenuous in the years ahead.