Europe's Worsening Terrorism Threat

The recent terrorist attacks in Barcelona and Turku have once again exposed Europe’s vulnerability to terrorism and the threat posed by small groups or individuals among the disaffected minorities living in Europe.  In fact, Europe is more vulnerable to such attacks than just about any other region in the world due to its location.  For one, the regions that surround Europe are among the most unstable regions in the world, with many of Europe’s minority groups maintaining close ties to these regions.  Meanwhile, this instability surrounding Europe has resulted in millions of people from these regions emigrating to Europe, most notably during 2015’s surge in migration from the Middle East and Africa.  Now, many of these migrants to Europe are finding it hard to integrate into local society.  For example, migrants, particularly unskilled ones, are struggling to find employment in their new countries, while minority groups in most European countries remain economically and socially marginalized.  As a result, Europe will remain particularly vulnerable to terrorist threats, both internal and external.

In the 1970s and the 1980s, Europe experienced a series of deadly terrorist attacks, most of which were carried out by radical political movements from inside Europe, or by Middle East-based militant groups.  However, Europe suffered almost no serious terrorist attacks from the late 1980s until the early 2000s, raising hopes that the threat of terrorism had passed.  However, since 2004’s train bombings in Madrid, Europe has once again found itself facing repeated terrorist attacks.  During this period, more than 800 people have been killed in terrorist attacks in Europe.  While this may be far less than the thousands of people who were killed in terrorist attacks in the region in the 1970s and 1980s, the number of attacks in recent years has risen, as has the death toll from these attacks.  In fact, over the past 22 months, there have been seven separate terrorist attacks in Europe in which at least ten people were killed.  The two worst attacks during this period were in France, with 137 people dying in November 2015’s attacks in Paris and another 87 people being killed in July 2016’s truck attack in Nice.

Unfortunately, the number of such attacks in Europe is likely to continue to rise in the coming months and years.  Worse, most of these attacks are likely to be carried out by individuals or groups that live inside European countries, either as part of long-established ethnic or religious minorities, or by recent arrivals in Europe who are struggling to integrate in their new homes or are facing expulsion from the region.  One imminent threat facing many European countries is the likely return of thousands of young men who left Europe to join the Islamic State or other militant groups fighting in one of the many wars underway in the Middle East and North Africa.  While many of Europe’s terrorist threats are internal, the region’s proximity to the conflicts raging around its periphery add to the risk of an influx of radicalized individuals, arms and terrorist ideology from abroad.  In fact, while many militant groups would rather attack targets further abroad (such as the United States), the relative ease of carrying out attacks in Europe makes it a much more convenient target for these groups.  As a result, Europe will remain in the crosshairs of many groups and individuals determined to strike at the West.

For the foreseeable future, Europe will face a significantly terrorist threat, both from inside its borders and from the increasingly unstable regions outside of its borders.  Moreover, the recent trend towards attacks using cars, trucks and crude weapons is likely to continue as smaller groups of attackers, even sometimes single individuals, carry out a majority of the attacks in Europe.  Still, the threat of larger-scale attacks such as 2015’s attacks in Paris cannot be ruled out, especially as militants from Europe return to the region from the Middle East.  In fact, as long as Europe’s periphery remains unstable, the threat from terrorism will remain a constant problem for all European countries.  This, in turn, is likely to fuel more anti-immigration sentiment in Europe, a development that will continue to impact the political landscape across the region in the months and years to come.  Altogether, this will add to the security challenges already facing Europe and could prove to be a major hindrance to the region’s efforts to enhance its political and economic integration.