Migration in the 21st Century
The ongoing migration crisis in Europe has finally focused the world’s attention on the threat posed by high levels of uncontrolled migration from poorer and less-stable areas of the world to the world’s wealthier regions. This is not a new development as there has been a steady flow of migration to North America, West Europe, the Arabian Peninsula and wealthier areas of the Asia-Pacific region for much of recent history. However, the fact that some of the world’s poorest regions are suffering from soaring population growth, dwindling natural resources and a high level of political unrest is leading to a major increase in the level of emigration from these regions. As such, the crises that we have seen this year in Europe and Southeast Asia may just be the tip of the iceberg.
In recent months, the migration crisis that has captured the most attention is the one underway in Europe. Over the past two years, an ever-increasing number of migrants and refugees from the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia have been risking their lives to cross the Mediterranean Sea to reach Italy and Greece, from where they hope to travel to the wealthier countries of northern Europe (most notably Germany). This year alone, nearly 250,000 migrants have made the dangerous crossing of the Mediterranean Sea, with at least 2,600 having died on this journey. This surge in migration into Europe this year has been driven by the worsening plight of the millions of people displaced by Syria’s civil war as well as the fact that the conflict in Libya has allowed human traffickers to act with impunity along the northern Libyan coast. While the recent death of a three-year-old Syrian boy shocked many European countries into action, it remains to be seen if Europe will be able to deal with the huge numbers of migrants and refugees arriving in the region, or whether or not it will be able to formulate a plan to deal with what could be a much greater surge in the number of migrants and refugees next year.
Another migration crisis is underway in Southeast Asia, where large numbers of migrants and refugees have been attempting to flee western Myanmar and Bangladesh in order to reach the wealthier countries of Southeast Asia. So far this year, tens of thousands migrants have risked their lives to reach Southeast Asia, with hundreds of people having died on this journey. Here, the migrants (most Muslim Rohingyas from Myanmar) are fleeing discrimination and persecution in their home countries, but their attempts to reach Southeast Asia have been met with widespread opposition from the countries in that region. Nevertheless, there is also the potential for yet higher numbers of Rohingyas and other groups to attempt the dangerous journey to Southeast Asia in the months and years ahead and this could significantly raise tensions in the region.
Finally, migration from Latin America to the United States continues apace and is likely to be one of the key issues in 2016’s presidential race in the US. Already, this Latin American migration to the US has been the leading topic among the 17 Republicans seeking their party’s nomination for next year’s presidential election. In recent years, large numbers of migrants from Latin American have continued to cross the southern border of the United States, although the death rate for migrants in North America is far lower than in southern Europe or in Southeast Asia. Most of these migrants continue to come from areas of Mexico and Central America that suffer from high levels of crime, corruption and poverty, as was evidenced by the waves of children from northern Central America that crossed the US border last year. While the US is better placed to absorb and integrate these migrants than Europe or Southeast Asia, this migration nevertheless faces significant opposition in the US, while the decline in the number of unskilled jobs available to new migrants has shrunk in the wake of the financial crisis.
Looking ahead, there is a very strong possibility that we are in the midst of a great wave of migration not seen since the European exodus to the New World that followed the European population explosion in the 19th century. Europe will face the brunt of this wave of migration, given its position nearest to the world’s most volatile hotspots in the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia, and Europe will likely have to choose between enabling a wave of migration that will dramatically change the face of Europe or of building “walls” to keep this wave of migration at bay. To prevent a wave of unsustainable migration, the international community will have to do more to stem the problems that are causing this migration at its sources. However, as we have seen, the international community has proven largely incapable of ending the wars, resource depletion and unsustainable population growth that are driving this migration. As a result, the recent surge in migration may prove to be just the tip of the iceberg, posing a massive challenge to Europe and other areas of the world.