In Retreat in Home, the Islamic State Spreads Terror Further Abroad

On the ground in Syria and Iraq, the Islamic State (IS) militant group has found itself on the defensive along many areas of the front line in those countries’ civil wars and has lost key positions in both countries in recent months.  In Syria, the Islamic State has been pushed back along many areas of its northern and western perimeters, while in Iraq, the group recently lost control of the strategic city of Fallujah.  Now, the two main cities under the control of the IS, Raqqa (its self-proclaimed capital city in Syria) and Mosul, (the largest city under its control) are in the sights of the enemies of the IS as the front lines move closer to each city.  As a result, for the first time in two years, the Islamic State is in real jeopardy of being defeated on the ground.  However, while the IS’ fortunes in Syria and Iraq have dimmed, its ability to carry out large-scale terrorist attacks further abroad is greater than ever, as evidenced by the recent series of attacks that have claimed hundreds of lives around the world.

After the Islamic State’s lightning offensives in 2014 gave the militant group control of a large portion of both Syria and Iraq, the IS confounded many experts by being able to hold on to these territories and to consolidate its rule over them.  It even took advantage of the disharmony among its enemies to further expand its territory in northern and central Syria, placing it near to the vital cities of Aleppo and Damascus.  However, counter-attacks by Iranian- and Russian-backed government forces in Syria have pushed the IS back away from Damascus, while US-backed rebels and their Kurdish allies have gone on the offensive north of Raqqa, driving IS forces back towards their capital city.  Likewise, the recent loss of the central Iraqi city of Fallujah to Iraqi government forces and their Shiite militia allies was a major blow to the Islamic State in Iraq.  Now, the IS faces the prospect of a large-scale offensive against Mosul (the economic heart of IS-controlled territory) by Iraqi government and Kurdish forces.  As such, the Islamic State is finding its position in Syria and Iraq becoming increasingly untenable and for the first time in two years, the group is facing defeat on the ground in Syria and Iraq.

While the Islamic State is clearly on the defensive in its home territories, it has proven to be more than capable of continuing to carry out and inspire large-scale terror operations well away from the borders of Syria and Iraq.  In fact, over the past year, the IS has directly carried out, or inspired followers to carry out, major terrorist operations in places such as Turkey, France, Belgium, Yemen and the United States, as well as many other places were IS-inspired attacks have occurred.  In many cases, the terrorists were trained by the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, with the attacks being planned from IS territory in those countries.  In other cases, particularly those recent attacks that occurred much further away from Syria and Iraq, the Islamic State has been able to inspire individuals or small groups not directly connected with the IS to carry out attacks in the name of the IS.  In fact, no group in recent history has been able to inspire so many people to carry out deadly attacks as the IS has done in recent months. 

Until the Islamic State can be defeated militarily in Syria and Iraq, the group will continue to be able to orchestrate and inspire more terrorist operations around the world.  At present, thousands of foreigners are fighting and training among the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq and these individuals pose a major threat to their home countries and to countries where they can easily travel to, unless they are killed or captured in Syria and Iraq.  Meanwhile, even if the Islamic State is defeated on the ground and it loses control of all of its territory, scattered cells of IS militants will be able to carry out and inspire attacks for years to come.  However, as we have seen with al-Qaeda, the loss of safe zones and bases reduces a group’s longer-term ability to plan and carry out larger-scale attacks.  As such, all powers involved in the civil wars in Syria and Iraq need to do more to defeat the Islamic State on the ground and prevent the group from controlling any territory in these countries.  In addition, more must be done to prevent the IS from establishing strongholds in failed states such as Libya, Yemen and Somalia, lest they continue to promote global terrorism from new bases in those countries.  Unless the IS’ reign of terror can be stopped, the damage done to global security and to democracy will worsen, as the impact of the Islamic State on global politics and security has been much greater than anyone could have imagined just two years ago.