Will the Islamic State Win in Syria and Iraq?

Despite the fact that it is facing an array of enemies that includes the United States, Iran and dozens of other countries, the Islamic State (IS) militant group remains on the offensive in many areas of Syria and Iraq.  Just a few months ago, it appeared that the Islamic State was on the verge of suffering major defeats in both Syria and Iraq, but since then, it has managed to go back onto the offensive, taking strategic locations on both sides of the border and dealing major defeats to the government forces of both countries.  Now, the war against the Islamic State is reaching a critical stage as the civil wars in Syria and Iraq are approaching what could be the decisive battles of those wars, battles that will likely determine the future of the Islamic State as a viable fighting force.

After a lightning offensive one year ago, the Islamic State was able to expand the territory under its control in Syria while seizing control of nearly half of Iraq, a country where it had little presence in the years before.  This lightning offensive galvanized many of the most powerful countries in the region to react to the rise of the Islamic State, with the United States forming an international coalition to carry out airstrikes on IS targets and Iran backing Iraqi government forces and their Shiite militia allies.  Thanks in large part to the airpower of the US and its allies, as well as Iran’s backing for its allies in Iraq; the Islamic State suffered a number of setbacks.  Militarily, the IS was pushed back from some of its territory in northern Iraq, while suffering a major defeat in the battle for the northern Syrian city of Kobane (with major Kurdish support in both cases).  Economically, US air power destroyed Syria’s oil industry that had been seized by the Islamic State and was funding much of its military activities in Syria and Iraq.

Instead of falling back on the defensive as had been expected in the wake of these major setbacks, the Islamic States has instead gone back on the offensive.  In Syria, Islamic State militants seized control of a Palestinian refugee installation near the heart of the Damascus, the first such incursion by the IS near to the Syrian capital.  Furthermore, Islamic State militants also moved closer to the main northern city in Syria, Aleppo, where rival rebel groups were battling with Syrian government forces for control of that region.  Meanwhile, in Iraq, Islamic State forces seized control of the strategic city of Ramadi, located just to the west of Baghdad.  As the capital of the vast western region of Anbar, this enabled the Islamic State to now claim that it controlled nearly the entire territory of Anbar.  Together, these victories point to the fact that, rather than being a spent force, the Islamic State is continuing to gain in strength. 

This resurgence in Islamic State power comes as the civil wars in Syria and Iraq are reaching a critical juncture.  In Syria, President Bashir Assad’s government forces have suddenly found themselves on the defensive in many areas of the country and could collapse under the weight of the forces arrayed against the government.  This would place the Islamic State in a strong position if the government collapsed, as it controls most of northern and eastern Syria and could launch attacks against rival rebel forces in other parts of the country.  Meanwhile, Iraqi government forces and their Shiite militia allies are preparing for an offensive against the northern city of Mosul, the largest city under the control of the Islamic State.  If the IS can beat back an attack on Mosul, this would be a devastating blow for the Iraqi government (and for Iran).  However, the loss of Mosul would be a major setback for the Islamic State, as it is the hub of IS economic activity and a place where the IS enjoys considerable support.  As a result, the next few months will be critical in determining the future of the Islamic State and the international community’s efforts to eradicate the militant group.