How Long Will the US Navy Rule the Seas?
Of all of the measures of military power in which the United States is the world’s leading country, it is in the field of naval power in which the US has perhaps its greatest lead over all other countries. In terms of land power, the US has the world’s most powerful land forces, but the gap between it and rivals such as China and Russia is not as great on land as it is in the air or the sea. In terms of air power, the US has a formidable array of planes and systems designed to give the US air superiority in any potential conflict, but even here, its power advantage is not as great as it is at sea. At sea, the US navy currently has no rival and is able to both dominate the open seas and to control most of the world’s most important shipping lanes. Since the United States gained control of the seas during the Second World War, its lead in terms of naval power over rival navies has continued to expand. Moreover, even as other countries such as China and India invest heavily in their naval forces, the US’ massive lead in this area is set to remain in place for a very long time. Nevertheless, internal and external threats could emerge that could weaken the US’ dominance of the seas over the longer term.
It is easy to understate the level of dominance that the United States possesses at sea. Its naval budget alone exceeds that of all of its major rivals’ combined naval expenditures, and its fleet of aircraft carriers, cruisers, destroyers, submarines and other naval vessels not only dwarfs its rivals in terms of numbers, but also in terms of firepower and technology. One example of this is the fact that the United States has ten of the world’s 20 active aircraft carriers, with each individual US carrier having the firepower of three or four of its rivals. In addition, the US Navy possesses 75% of the world’s cruisers, 50% of the world’s nuclear submarines and 30% of the world’s destroyers. Add to this array of weaponry a favorable geographic position that gives the US open access to all of the world’s oceans and it is clear that the US is operating from a position of overwhelming strength at sea. In addition, its main rivals suffer from distinct geographical disadvantages, such as China’s location behind multiple series of island chains and Russia’s lack of warm water ports, further enhancing the US’ naval advantages.
While many countries bristle at the thought that the United States’ domination of the world’s waterways has provided massive benefits for their citizens, there is no doubt that the dominance of the world’s oceans by a single power has allowed for many of the advances in living standards and security that the world enjoys today. First, as an economically liberal country, the United States has supported the rise of global trade and investment (at least until this year) and has allowed trade and investment to flourish by protecting the world’s most important shipping lanes. With a major naval presence near all of the world’s leading shipping lanes, the US Navy allowed the modern globalized economy to flourish, and provided a means for emerging markets to export their way to greater prosperity and for aging developed economies to continue to grow through exporting to more dynamic markets. This, in turn, boosted business and investor confidence by ensuring that global trade would not be disrupted by unrest and conflict along these vital arteries of commerce. Furthermore, the US navy’s domination of the seas has prevented lawlessness at sea, at least in areas where the United States has a direct interest in preventing such lawlessness.
There are very few historical examples of a single power having dominated the seas, and certainly no power has single-handedly dominated the world’s oceans like the United States does today. One historical example worth noting is Rome, which dominated the waters of the Mediterranean Sea for centuries, enabling a vast inter-connected trade and investment system to flourish in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East, giving rise to an unprecedented leap in living standards for many of the inhabitants of the Roman Empire. Likewise, the periods of the greatest advancements in living standards in China took place when a single power controlled both the major rivers of China as well as its coastal waterways, allowing for trade and investment to flourish across China. In the 19th century, Britain’s dominant position on the world’s seas gave rise to the first truly globalized system of trade and investment that reached almost every corner of the globe and allowed for Britain’s Industrial Revolution to spread around the world. Over the past 75 years, the United States has taken the mantle of protector of the seas from Britain and has established a level of naval domination that 19th century Britain could only have imagined.
There is no doubt that the United States’ massive advantage in terms of naval power will remain in place for the foreseeable future. The US’ current partners (and potential rivals) in Europe have seen their naval power fall dramatically over the past century and, given their declining share of global defense spending, Europe’s relative naval power is set to continue to decline in the coming decades. Likewise, Russia’s navy remains largely a token force, although its submarines do possess one of the few threats to the US Navy in some areas of the world.
Of all of the potential rivals to the US at sea, only one, China, appears likely to close the gap with the United States in terms of naval power. This is due to the fact that China is spending more than any other country outside of the US on its navy and is developing naval forces aimed at both controlling the seas adjacent to China as well as being able to project power much further abroad. This is likely to lead to a battle for influence and position, both in bodies of water near China (such as the South China Sea) as well as along shipping lanes further abroad (such as in the Pacific and Indian oceans). Certainty, it will take a long time for China to develop a navy capable of challenging the US’ dominance at sea, but it appears likely that this is China’s intention, at least in the areas in which China has major trading and investment interests. Should a true rival emerge and find itself at odds with the US Navy, global trade and investment could suffer a major setback.