1 March 2022

The ISA Ukraine Conflict Update - 28 February 2022

Daily Summary

While Russia has made sizeable territorial gains on the northern, eastern and southern fronts of the Ukrainian Conflict, the pace of its advances has slowed in many parts of the country. This has been due to strong resistance by Ukrainian defense forces, particularly in urban areas of the country.

Russia’s military is designed to fight in open terrain, but they have found themselves engaged in difficult street fighting in Ukraine’s two largest cities, Kyiv and Kharkiv. In fact, their initial attempts to seize both of those cities were repulsed, although Russian forces continue to gain ground in areas around each city.

Another area where Russia appears to have miscalculated is in the united opposition to its invasion of Ukraine from the West. In fact, after some dithering by Germany, Italy and others on imposing harsher sanctions on Russia, the West is now unified in its determination to make Russia pay for its invasion. President Putin had hoped that years of sowing internal dissention in the West would hamper its ability to create a united front against Russia, but this has not been the case.

While Ukrainian armed forces and irregulars have done a laudable job in slowing the Russian advance in many areas of their country, the odds that they can still hold on to Kyiv and Kharkiv are stacked against them. However, they have proven that the forces that Russia has arrayed against them are unlikely to be enough to pacify and country as large and as proud as Ukraine.

 

Developments to Watch

The Battle for Kyiv: While Russian forces were thwarted in their efforts to use quick infiltration tactics to seize control of the Ukrainian capital, there are increasing reports of large-scale Russian movements of troops and weapons to the front lines around Kiev.

Belarus Prepares to Enter the War: After having allowed Russia to use its territory to launch an attack on Kiev from the north, Belarus appears to be preparing to deploy its own armed forces to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.