The Mess in Thailand

Just a decade ago, Thailand was seen as one of the most promising countries in Asia, with a fast-growing economy and a relatively high level of political stability.  At the center of one of the world’s most dynamic regions, Thailand’s future appeared to be bright and most experts believed that Thailand was on the cusp of a period of higher levels of economic growth and development.  Unfortunately, Thailand’s last decade has been anything but a success, and today, Thailand’s economy is in disarray and its government is in the hands of the country’s armed forces, which seized power last year after eight years of political unrest. 

This week, an unknown assailant carried out a bomb attack on a popular tourist site in Bangkok, killing 20 people, including many tourists.  Smaller attacks have been common in recent years in Thailand, but this latest attack could signal the start of a campaign aimed at destabilizing Thailand and its vital tourism industry, leading to another crackdown on democracy by Thailand’s military-led government.  This is evident in the fact that this attack was carried out with the aim of causing maximum damage and casualties as it was carried out at the height of rush hour in Bangkok, and at a time when many tourists were at the site of the attack.  Even more worrying was the fact that there was at least one other attempted attack at the time of the Bangkok bombing, indicating that a larger group coordinated these attacks.

In the years before 2014’s military coup, Thailand’s politics were dominated by the clash between Thaksin Shinawatra and his allies on one side (backed by most voters in northern and eastern Thailand) and the political opposition (backed by Bangkok and southern Thailand).  Shinawatra and his supporters were able to win election after election, but their right to govern the country was never truly recognized by the political opposition, which took to the streets to stage massive protests to force the military to intervene on a number of occasions in recent years, until 2014’s coup brought a temporary end to this political standoff.  Add to this political mess a monarchy in Thailand that tolerates no criticism (much like the Kim family in North Korea), and an insurgency by Muslim separatists in southern Thailand, and it is clear that Thailand’s political situation is a powder keg waiting to explode. 

Thailand’s economic situation is not much better.  Between 2002 and 2007, the Thai economy grew by an average of 5.6% per year, one of the highest rates of growth in Asia.  This led to hopes that Thailand could achieve these high rates of growth for a prolonged period of time, allowing the country to move up global wealth and development tables.  However, a combination of political unrest and the impact of the global financial crisis has resulted in a sharp downturn for the Thai economy, with the country’s average annual economic growth rate falling to just 2.6% since 2008, one of the lowest levels of growth in Asia.  Moreover, the threat of more political unrest is likely to deter foreign investment in Thailand and to damage the country’s large tourism industry.  This combination of political uncertainty and economic weakness means that Thailand is unlikely to enjoy a period of high growth and stability in the coming years, resulting in Thailand falling behind many other countries in the region and failing to meet the ambitious goals many had set for this country.