The World's Next Civil Wars
In recent years, most of the major conflicts and insurgencies that have taken place around the world can be categorized as civil wars as they have been primarily internal conflicts between rival groups within an individual country. Most of these conflicts have been fueled by internal divisions that have prevented those countries in which the conflicts have taken place from achieving the level of stability and security needed to have long-term stability.
A good example of this is in the Middle East and North Africa, where nearly all of the ongoing conflicts in that region began as internal disputes. For example, the ongoing wars in Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen and Somalia, while now involving many outside powers, all began as clashes between internal rivals. The same is true of the never-ending conflict in Afghanistan, that, while involving many international powers, remains at its base a civil war between rival ethnic and religious groups from inside that country. The many conflicts and insurgencies that are currently destabilizing Sub-Saharan Africa also share these same characteristics, as they too most began as internal clashes, or as conflicts involving religious or ethnic groups that live divided between one or more of the rather arbitrary borders that were imposed on that region by its former European colonial masters.
As we have seen, there are a number of factors that contribute to creating a climate that is conducive to facilitating internal conflict. For example, nearly all of the internal conflicts raging today are taking place in countries that have populations that are divided between different ethnic, religious or linguistic groups. Ethnic divisions are at the heart of many today’s conflicts, including those involving the Kurds in the Middle East and the ongoing civil war in Afghanistan. Religious tensions are also the basis of many of today’s wars and insurgencies, such as the civil wars underway in Yemen and Syria and the recent unrest in places such as Myanmar and Nigeria. Even linguistic tensions can rise high enough to foster significant levels of unrest, as we have seen in recent years in places such as Ukraine and Cameroon.
In addition to these population-based factors, a number of other factors can result in the rising threat of internal conflict. Chief among these factors are disputes based on control of land and resources. As populations grow and land and resources become more scarce, such conflicts could become more frequent, particularly in regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. Other factors are economic, with issues such as wealth inequality and rising unemployment rates raising internal tensions in numerous countries. Finally, outside powers can stoke internal tensions in other countries, either with the aim of improving their own strategic position or to weaken potential competitors.
Given these factors, it is easy to identify countries that are risk of suffering from internal conflicts at some point in the future. Many of these at-risk countries are found in Sub-Saharan Africa, as most countries in this region face the demographic, environmental and economic factors that are most likely to lead to such internal conflicts. With divided (and expanding) populations, low levels of economic development and dwindling resources, many Sub-Saharan African countries are likely to struggle to maintain a high degree of internal stability. Among the countries in this region most at risk of internal conflict are Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Ethiopia, Burundi and Cameroon, although nearly all of the countries in this region are at risk.
Meanwhile, many of the countries in the Middle East and North Africa that have thus far avoided the fate of many of their war-torn neighbors remain at risk of internal conflict. Over the near-term, the countries most at risk of a full-blown internal conflict are Lebanon and Algeria, both of which have experienced significant internal conflicts in recent decades. Central and South Asian countries also share many of the same characteristics as those countries in Africa and the Middle East that have suffered from internal conflicts. Even some European countries have deeply divided populations that could result in either full-blown conflicts, such as those experienced by Bosnia and Ukraine, or in internal unrest such as that in Spain in recent months.
Without question, the number of internal conflicts in the world today remains much too high, with millions of lives being disrupted by these conflicts. Moreover, the longer these conflicts last, the greater the chance that they spread to neighboring countries, either by destabilizing these neighbors or by dragging neighboring forces into these conflicts. Unfortunately, there is little hope for a reduction in the number of internal conflicts raging around the world. For example, ethnic, religious and linguistic divisions show no signs of being bridged in most areas of the world, and instead, nationalism and religious extremism appear to be gaining momentum. Likewise, ideological disputes could return as a source of conflict, much as they were in the 1930s (as during the Spanish Civil War). Furthermore, expanding populations and a rising level of resource scarcity will fuel conflicts in many of the most unstable areas of the world. At the same time, the struggle between the centralization and the de-centralization of political and economic power in many areas of the world will stoke tensions and expand existing internal divisions in many countries. When one considers all of these factors and trends, it is clear that the threat of a growing number of internal conflicts will continue to rise, and, as such, the 21st century will continue to look quite a lot like the 20th century.