If Britain Leaves the EU, Who Follows?

The upcoming referendum in the United Kingdom on whether or not to leave the European Union is sure to have a major impact on the futures of both the UK and the EU.  According to recent polls, the result of this referendum is likely to be very close.  Earlier, it appeared that support for remaining in the EU would rise in the final weeks of the campaign as a majority of foreign and domestic political and business leaders urged British votes to opt to remain a part of the European Union.  However, recent polls have shown that there has been an increase in momentum for supporters of Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.  As such, Britain is risking potential disruptions to its economy that is closely linked with the rest of the European Union, while the EU is in danger of losing one of its most dynamic economies as well as the EU member state with the closest ties to the rest of the Western world.  Moreover, a British withdrawal from the EU could lead to other countries opting to withdraw from the EU in the coming years.

Traditionally, anti-EU sentiment has been higher in Britain than in most other EU member states, a key factor in the upcoming referendum in the UK.  However, recent polls have shown that support for the European Union is in decline across the entire organization.  For example, recent polls have shown that a large majority of voters in EU member states disapprove of the EU’s handing of the recent migration and economic crises in Europe.  This has led to a major increase in the number of European voters who now have an unfavorable view of the European Union, with the EU’s approval rating now at an all-time low.  Moreover, some of the highest unfavorable ratings for the European Union are now found in long-time EU member states that were once the key drivers of the efforts to integrate Europe.  Now, should British voters opt to pull out of the European Union, momentum is likely to increase in other countries for their own withdrawal from the EU.

It is little surprise that it is the United Kingdom that is first in line to vote on whether or not to leave the European Union, given that Britain has long been opposed to efforts to make the EU anything more than a free trade area.  However, should Britain choose to leave the EU, the next country in line to hold such a vote could be one that has long been a key member of the EU, France.  The idea that the country that long dominated efforts to integrate Europe under its leadership could decide to withdraw from the EU may seem far-fetched.  However, France’s loss of power and influence within the European Union has left many French voters with less enthusiasm for the EU, while French political leaders often blame their country’s economic woes on Brussels.  If Britain opts to leave the EU, this could have a massive influence on France’s national elections in 2017, as the party currently on top in the polls in France, the far-right Front National (FN), also favors withdrawing France from the EU.  This could force the center-right Republicans to promise a referendum on EU membership much as the Conservatives did in order to gain support from Eurosceptics ahead of Britain’s last national elections in 2015.

With support for the European Union falling sharply in a number of EU member states, it is not hard to imagine that Eurosceptic groups on the right- and left-wing would push for similar referendums in the coming years as a means of taking away support from centrist pro-EU parties.  For example, countries with strong far-right and far-left political parties such as Austria, Greece, Denmark and others could find themselves forced to hold referendums on whether or not to remain in the European Union.  Moreover, a country like Greece might find itself outside of the European Union whether it likes it or not should that country’s financial crisis worsen and it be forced to drop the euro as its official currency.  Meanwhile, right-wing governments in Poland and Hungary have shown a great deal of antipathy for Brussels, although their electorates remain largely pro-EU.  Altogether, a British vote to withdraw from the European Union could begin the process of unraveling six decades of European integration, particularly if anti-EU sentiment continues to grow in France, or if a new economic or migration crisis hits the region.  Regardless of the outcome of the British referendum, the threat of a Brexit has served as a wake-up call to Brussels that EU voters are no longer satisfied with the direction of the European Union and significant changes will be needed to ensure that the EU does not tear itself apart.