Democracies Move Away from the Center
Since the Second World War, voters in the world’s leading democracies have not strayed too far from the political center, allowing democracy not only to flourish in its traditional centers, but to spread to most corners of the world. Moreover, the centrist nature of democracies in North America, Europe and East Asia helped to contribute to what was an unprecedented period of prolonged economic and political stability in these regions.
However, there has been a clear increase in support for more radical politicians and political movements on both the left and right of the political spectrum in recent years, threatening the stability that has been in place in much of the democratic world since the Second World War. As the factors that have contributed to the increase in support for more rightist and leftist political figures and parties are likely to remain in place or grow more pronounced in the coming years, this trend is likely to continue.
On one end of the political spectrum, support for leaders and parties on the far-right has been on the rise in many areas of the world. In Europe, aging populations and the threat of illegal immigration from the unstable regions around Europe have allowed far-right parties to flourish in what were once some of the world’s most tolerant countries. The current migration crisis in Europe and a growing distrust of the European Union are likely to further boost the support of the far-right and it is no longer inconceivable that far-right parties could win power in a number of European countries.
Elsewhere, radical religious ideals and strict social conservatism are also boosting support for parties and leaders that fall under the far-right banner, ranging from some sections of the Republican Party in the United States to arch-conservative Salafist movements in the Middle East and North Africa. Finally, nationalism remains a key driving force of far-right political parties around the world and, despite the fact that the world is more inter-connected than ever, this remains a very potent political force, as we have seen in countries around the world.
On the other end of the political spectrum, the far-left is making a serious comeback, just 25 years after it was given up for dead in the wake of the fall of communism in Central and Eastern Europe and the abandonment of Communist economic ideals in China. A key factor in this increase in support for the far-left is the fact that wealth inequality levels are continuing to rise in many areas of the world, resulting in wealth being concentrated in the hands of a relatively small share of the populations of many countries.
In Europe, the far-left has made a major comeback in many countries due to the fallout from that region’s severe economic crisis over the past seven years. Even in the United States, where the far-left has never had much of an impact, support for more leftist candidates is on the rise as poorer and less-educated US citizens are finding it difficult to succeed in the economy of the 21st century.
Looking ahead, support for far-right and far-left political parties is likely to continue to rise in some areas of the world and, should another major economic or political crisis strike, parties on both sides of the political spectrum stand to gain. For the far-right, the growing threat of uncontrolled migration, particularly in Europe, will continue to allow far-right parties and leaders to flourish and it is just a matter of time before a far-right president or prime minister is in power in a major country in that region. Likewise, the threat of political unrest and terrorism is certain to remain high around the world and this too will boost the fortunes of the far-right.
On the other side, the far-left will need more economic chaos to consolidate their recent gains and to see their support levels rise to heights not seen in recent decades. However, should another economic crisis strike, particularly in Europe, then far-left parties may start to emulate the recent successes of their far-right rivals. If this occurs, political systems in many countries may become hopelessly fragmented; such as we have seen in Europe’s most extreme case, Greece, where the country is preparing for its sixth national election in the past eight years. In turn, this could reduce the level of popular support for democracy, threatening to usher in a new era of totalitarianism that for many, is extremely hard to imagine.