ISA Ukraine Conflict Update - 4th of March 2022

Daily Summary

While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is clearly behind schedule, Russian forces have nevertheless continued to slowly advance along most areas of the front line between the two sides. Furthermore, as Ukrainian forces are entrenched in urban areas such as Kyiv, Kharkiv and Mariupol, Russia’s armed forces have resorted to using artillery and air power to reduce parts of those cities to rubble, a development which could favor the defenders.

In the north, Russian forces continued with their efforts to surround the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, making a little headway to the west and the east of the city. This appears to be the main thrust of the Russian offensive, and Russia has committed additional forces to this front in recent days.

To the east, Russian forces have struggled to gain ground in and around the city of Kharkiv, which has been the scene of some of the most intense fighting of the war so far. In fact, this is the front in which Ukrainian forces have had some of their biggest successes in terms of repelling Russian advances.

It is along the southern front where Russian forces have had the most success so far, winning control of nearly the entire Ukrainian coast along the Sea of Azov and driving northwards up the lower reaches of the Dnieper River. Russian forces even seized control of Europe’s largest nuclear power facility and Zaporizhzhia.

Key Developments

Nuclear Plant Fears: Ukraine is home to four active nuclear power facilities (plus the disabled Chernobyl nuclear facility) and a host of other nuclear sites. The recent Russian attack on Europe’s largest nuclear plant (Zaporizhzhia) has raised fears of a potential nuclear disaster in Ukraine.

The Coming Days: There are concerns that the Ukrainian forces battling to stave off the Russian invasion could soon begin to run out of supplies. Prior to the outbreak of the war, it was assumed that Ukraine’s armed forces could fight for ten days before critical supplies were exhausted.