Turkey’s Difficult Relations with the Middle East

Not that long again, the AKP-led Turkish government was being praised for its efforts at improving relations with each and every one of its immediate neighbors.  In fact, the Zero Problems with its Neighbors policy (so named by then Foreign Minister, and current Prime Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu) proved to be a great success for some time, with relations with the Arab World bolstered by the early days of the Arab Spring and with the Turkish government’s efforts at improving relations with long-time rivals such as Greece and Armenia.  However, much has changed between those days and today.  Now, Turkey finds itself facing a number of serious challenges along all of its borders, a far cry from the situation that was envisioned by the AKP government when it launched its Zero Problems policy.  Nowhere are these troubles more evident than in Turkey’s relations with the rest of the Middle East.

Turkey’s most pressing foreign policy issue at the moment is found along its southern border in the form of the Islamic State militant group.  Initially, Turkey tolerated the Islamic State as they handed a series of major defeats to Kurdish militants in Syria and Iraq, a development welcomed in Ankara.  Moreover, Turkey’s government quickly turned on the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad as it carried out a war of annihilation against rebel forces in Syria and, as a result, Ankara welcomed any group that could defeat Assad’s forces.  However, as the Islamic State eventually seized control of much of Syria’s border with Turkey, Ankara began to grow increasingly worried about the presence of such a radical militant group along its border.  Finally, this week’s Islamic State attack on Turkish student activists in the city of Suruc may finally force the Turkish government to take steps to weaken the IS, which include stemming the flow of recruits joining the IS via Turkey and bolstering the military capabilities of other rebel groups in Syria. 

Elsewhere in the Middle East, Turkey is also facing a series of challenges.  First, Kurdish-controlled areas of northern Iraq have proven to be quite successful at governing their territory and they enjoy the strong backing of the United States.  This troubles Turkey as it provides both a base and an ideal for Kurdish militant groups in southeastern Turkey that seek greater autonomy, or even independence, from Ankara.  Second, Iran’s recent nuclear deal with the international community signals that Iran is on the verge of becoming a major power in the Middle East.  In such a position, Iran will be well placed to challenge the region’s other leading powers (Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Israel) for the leading position in the Middle East.  For Turkey, this could mean being forced to choose between Saudi Arabia and Iran as those two countries’ rivalry continues to intensify.  Or, Turkey could choose to remain aloof from this rivalry, choosing instead to play the role of the region’s chief balancer of power.  Either way, Turkey is being forced to make some tough decisions with regards to its policies in the Middle East, policies that will determine Turkey’s ability to restore stability along its southern border.