ISA Ukraine Conflict Update - 31st of March 2022

Daily Summary

Russian government and military officials have claimed to their primary objective in Ukraine was to secure the independence of the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. According to these reports, this includes an end to offensive operations around Kyiv and other areas in the north, although heavy fighting has continued in this area in recent days.

It appears that Russia was redeploying more of its forces in Ukraine to the eastern part of the country. Here, Russia has connected the territories under its control. In recent days. Russia has made minor territorial gains to the north of the Luhansk region as well as along areas of the southern front in Ukraine.

The slow Russian advance into the city of Mariupol continued, but at great cost to Russia’s armed forces in terms of personnel and materiel losses. It appears increasingly likely that Russia will fully control that southern port city in the coming days, giving Russia full control over Ukraine’s coastline along the Sea of Azov.

Along some parts of the front, Ukrainian forces have been able to launch counterattacks against the Russians. Around Kyiv, Ukrainian forces have seized territory that had been held by the Russians to the west of the city. In addition, Ukrainian counterattacks have seized some territory around the southern city of Kherson, the largest Ukrainian city to have been captured by the Russians in this conflict.

The Latest Conflict Map

What to Watch in the Coming Days

Putin’s Gas Threat: Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to cut off gas supplies to ”unfriendly” countries that refused to pay for this gas in Russian rubles beginning on the 1st of April. This has coincided with a partial rebound in the value of the ruble, despite sanctions against Russia.

The Coming Days: Ukrainian forces are likely to find it challenging to defend territory in the east as long as they remain focused on defending Kyiv and Kharkiv, as well as on regaining territory in the south. However, Russia will need to fix its logistical issues if this strategy is to succeed.