The Russian-Turkish Rivalry

In a short period of time, the worsening standoff between Russia and Turkey has emerged as one of the most important flashpoints in the world and the one current flashpoint that could bring into conflict two countries with such significant military and economic power.  At the moment, the focus of these tensions is in Syria, where Russia and Turkey find themselves on rival sides in that country’s ongoing civil war.  In fact, the presence of both countries’ armed forces in and around Syria has raised the threat that the two sides could stumble into an armed confrontation similar to Turkey’s shooting down of a Russian fighter jet late last year.  However, Syria is not the only place where these two countries could come into conflict as Russo-Turkish relations have a long and turbulent history.

For the time being, Syria will remain the front line of the growing dispute between Russia and Turkey, as Russia is fully backing the Assad regime, whereas Turkey is opposed to the Syrian government and wants to see it completely ousted from power in that country.  For Turkey, Russia’s dramatic intervention in Syria’s civil war on the side of the Assad regime late last year was a direct challenge to the notion that Syria lies fully within Turkey’s sphere of influence.  Moreover, prior to Russia’s intervention, the tide had turned against the Assad regime, which found itself losing ground along many areas of the front line in Syria.  As for Russia, it viewed Turkey’s more ambiguous role in Syria as a threat to its security, as Turkey has viewed the radical Islamic State (IS) militant group as a better option than either the Assad government or the Syrian Kurdish militias that have taken control of many areas of northern Turkey.  With Russia now fully involved in Syria’s civil war, and with Turkey positioning more forces along its border with Syria, the potential for a clash between Russian and Turkish armed forces in Syria has risen significantly.

While economic and political relations between Russia and Turkey had been relatively strong in recent years, the fact is that these two countries have been bitter rivals for a very long period of time.  For example, Russia has long coveted control of Istanbul and the Bosporus, as Turkey’s ability to close this vital waterway gives it control over Russia’s access to the Mediterranean Sea.  Moreover, the two sides have long battled for influence in and around the Black Sea, the Balkans and in the Caucasus, and this struggle for influence in these regions led to a number of wars between the two powers stretching back for more than 300 years.  Given the fact that Russia and Turkey are the two leading powers in each of these volatile regions has made it inevitable that the two sides would often find themselves taking up arms against one another, while supporting proxy states in each region.  As such, it is clear that the current tensions between Turkey and Russia run much deeper than just their involvement in Syria’s civil war.

For the time being, the dispute between Russia and Turkey will remain focused on Syria as that country’s civil war enters a new phase in which foreign powers play a larger role in that conflict.  At present, Turkey is clearly on the back foot in Syria, having been caught off guard (like many other countries) by Russia’s willingness to commit large-scale armed forces to support the Assad regime’s war efforts.  However, Russia is aware that, without a decisive victory for the Syrian government and its Russian, Iranian and Hezbollah allies, it is likely to become bogged down in Syria’s civil war without any means to withdraw from the conflict without the collapse of the Assad government.  As for Turkey, it cannot allow Russia to gain a client state along its southern border, as Ankara is already concerned about Russia’s seizure of Crimea and its growing influence in the Caucasus.  However, Turkey is facing a myriad of crises along and around all of its borders and this is forcing Turkey to play a very difficult balancing act involving a host of foreign states and groups, and this weakens Turkey’s ability to decisively intervene in the Syrian conflict.  As such, both sides are finding themselves in an unenviable position in Syria, with the threat of a conflict between these two sizeable powers growing daily.