The Impact of Trump’s Troubles

As United States President Donald Trump is on his first foreign trip as president, his troubles back home are continuing to mount and are calling into question the future of his presidency after just four months in office.  On one hand, he has run into strong opposition to many of the key policies that formed the basis of his successful election campaign last year.  For example, while he has moved quickly to implement some of the protectionist policies that he promised his supporters, his efforts to overhaul the US’ healthcare and tax systems have run into strong opposition and are proceeding much slower than President Trump had promised.  With regards to curbing immigration, the president has made even less progress, as his plan for a massive wall along the border with Mexico has been thwarted and his efforts to block travelers from many Muslim countries have been blocked by US courts.  On top of this opposition to his core policies, President Trump has found himself and his administration beset by scandal, none of which has proven to be more damaging than the allegations that his campaign and administration has had illegal ties with the government of Russia.  All of this is serving to weaken President Trump and his administration, turning the world’s leading power inwards and leaving it rudderless at a time of great international uncertainty.

Domestically, politics in the United States has been turned on its head thanks to the chaos and scandals that have dominated President Trump’s first four months in office.  Inside the White House, the combination of the chaotic governing style of the president and the ongoing power struggle between those within the administration who have the president’s ear has resulted in a White House that struggles mightily to deal with the myriad of issues that face the leader of the world’s most powerful country.  Furthermore, the president and his administration’s hostility towards many of the most powerful government institutions in the United States has resulted in uncertainty and in-fighting across many segments of the US government.  Following 2016’s presidential and congressional elections, it was the Democratic Party that was in disarray following its shock defeat.  However, after just four months in office, the collapsing approval rating for President Trump threatens to cause massive damage to the Republican Party, which despite its control of most levels of power in the US at the moment, has struggled to work together with President Trump or to fulfill most of the promises that they made to voters last year.  In fact, some prominent Republicans, fearful of the downward spiral of the Trump presidency, are already jumping ship and considering the removal of the president.  Never before has the term impeachment been spoken so early in a president’s term in office, with much of this talk coming from Republicans. 

Due to the United States’ immense economic, political and military power, this chaos in Washington is having an impact across the global.  For the past century, the United States has been the world’s dominant power and, for most of that time, stability has been assured in Washington.  However, the current situation in Washington is anything but stable, with many analysts comparing the current situation in Washington to that of the darkest days of the Watergate scandal, although it would be unfair to a worldly leader like Richard Nixon to compare his command of world affairs with President Trump.  The most immediate international impact of this chaos has been on US-Russian relations, due largely to the allegations of widespread Russian interference in last year’s presidential election in the US and the reported ties between the Trump Administration and Russia.  It is telling that, despite Russia’s relative weakness vis-à-vis the US, its ability to influence events in Washington has proven to be substantial.  Meanwhile, while this chaos grips Washington, the United States is finding itself absent from many of the key international issues in which it has traditionally played a leading role.  This is concerning many of the US’ leading allies, who have rushed to gain assurances from President Trump of the US’ commitment to their security and stability.  This highlights the indispensable role that the US plays globally, but also the growing fear of US isolationism and instability from those countries that have benefitted from the US-led international system that has been in place since the Second World War.

The fear in Washington is that new revelations regarding the Trump Administration’s ties with Russia will surface in the coming weeks, further destabilizing the political system in the US and weakening President Trump’s grip on power, something that could encourage adventurism from the US’ international rivals.  Meanwhile, President Trump may attempt to focus on pushing through some of his more controversial policies in a bid to shore up his core support as his overall approval ratings continue to trend downwards.  As this occurs, an increasing amount of power will be in the hands of the Republican-led Congress, particularly the Senate, where President Trump does not enjoy a great deal of support, even among Republicans.  Should the situation continue to deteriorate, many of these Congressional Republicans may decide to toss the president overboard via impeachment and hand over the presidency to Vice President Mike Pence, who has broad support among nearly all sectors of the Republican Party.  Overall, the fact that an impeachment is being discussed so early in his presidency is an indictment of the poor job that President Trump has done so far in office.  While many in the US and around the world would welcome more stable US leadership, the chaos that would likely precede such a massive change would be dangerously destabilizing, for the United States and the wider world.