Russia's Decline

During his time in power, President Vladimir Putin has done everything in his power to restore Russia to the status of a great power, one that can compete globally with giant powers such as the United States and China.  When he succeeded President Boris Yeltsin in 2000, Russia was a broken country whose power and influence was decimated by the collapse of the Soviet Union and the economic disasters that had befallen the country during the 1990s. 

In the early years of his leadership, President Putin focused nearly all of his efforts on restoring centralized control in Russia, something that had been lost in the chaotic years of the Yeltsin presidency.  These efforts were bolstered by rising natural resource prices as demand for Russian energy and minerals soared, particularly in emerging markets.  As the Russian economy grew and centralized power was restored, President Putin turned his attention towards rebuilding Russia’s dominant position in its near abroad, attempting to partially reverse the losses the country suffered during the collapse of the Soviet Union. 

Now, Russia is seeking to take the next step and assert its power and influence further abroad, much as the USSR did during the height of its power.  However, Russia’s efforts may prove in vain as a number of factors are contributing to the long-term decline of Russian power, a decline that is likely to continue over the longer-term.

In the decades following its victory in the Second World War, Russia (through the Soviet Union) was the world’s second-leading power and possessed fearsome military strength.  However, in the final decades of the Soviet Union, it fell behind the United States and other rivals in terms of economic power, and this decline weakened all other measures of power in Russia, including its military power. 

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, many factors have contributed to Russia’s overall weakness.  For example, Russia faces one of the world’s most pressing demographic declines and the total population of Russia today is less than half of the population of the USSR in its final days, due to the loss of much of its territory as well as a general decline in Russia’s population.  Likewise, a lack of economic diversification and a shrinking domestic market has resulted in Russia having an economy that is increasingly dependent upon natural resource exports, a dangerous situation that has been exposed by the low price of natural resources in recent years. 

A shrinking population and a weak economy have both played a role in Russia’s loss of military power and limits Moscow’s ability to rebuild Russian military strength in the future.  Altogether, Russia is a much smaller player on the global stage than the Soviet Union was, despite the best efforts of President Putin to reassert Russian influence around the world.

Given Russia’s demographic and economic situation, it is clear that the decline of Russian power will continue without some major changes.  On the demographic front, the Russian government has taken steps to boost the country’s low birth rate, but any change here will take a long-time to be a factor in influencing Russian power.  Furthermore, Russia remains a highly-divided country in terms of ethnicity and religion, and the government must do more to unify the country before it loses its grip on areas of Russia that are populated by ethnic and religious minorities. 

Economically, Russia remains a major power in terms of natural resources, but it must diversify its economy in order to reduce its exposure to fluctuating natural resource prices, particularly as long-term demand for Russian natural resources could fail to meet expectations.  Externally, Russia finds itself being overshadowed by the much greater power of the United States and the fast-rising power of China.  Without a dramatic shift in the balance of power, Russia will find itself falling even further behind these two great powers, not to mention other powers that have global or regional ambitions.

Given the factors facing Russia, many have questioned whether or not the country’s decline can be reversed?  On one hand, the Putin government has recognized some of the factors that have weakened Russia’s hand in recent decades.  For example, the government’s efforts to raise the country’s birth rate is a welcome sign for Russia, as demographic weakness impacts all other measures of power.  Likewise, Russia’s efforts to restore its influence over its near-abroad are a form of recognition that Russia, as it is today, is not a great power that can compete with the US or China. 

However, Russia’s efforts in Eastern Europe and Central Asia have had mixed results so far, with little to show for its growing commitments in these regions.  Moreover, Russia will never return to superpower status if it cannot diversify and modernize its economy, and here, the Putin government has failed to take the steps needed to make Russia a major economic power.  As such, as long as Russia’s demographic situation remains poor and as long as the country’s economy remains dependent upon natural resource exports, Russia will not be able to achieve the global ambitions of its president and may yet find itself trapped in a prolonged period of decline.