Upcoming Elections to Watch

In 2014, more voters went to the polls to vote in national and multi-national elections than in any other year in history.  As such, 2015 has not seen the number or level of those massive elections that took place last year.  Nevertheless, there have been some interesting elections over the first seven-and-a-half months this year.  In Britain, Mexico and Israel, conservative governments remained popular, winning national elections in each country and doing much better than polls had suggested prior to these elections.  In contrast, governments and leaders tainted by corruption were ousted by voters in Nigeria, Greece and Sri Lanka, leading to major changes in the composition of the governments of each of these countries.  As we look ahead to the remainder of this year, there are also a number of national elections that bear watching.

Europe, battered by seven years of economic troubles, has seen some of the largest political changes in recent years as new political movements have emerged in many European countries in the wake of the region’s economic crisis.  This will be evident in Spain’s parliamentary elections in December 2015, as the new far-left Podemos party and the new centrist Ciudadanos party have emerged as major players in Spain and are likely to win large shares of the vote in this year’s elections there.  Meanwhile, Spain’s neighbor, Portugal, will also hold national elections later this year, but unlike in the rest of southern Europe, Portugal’s traditional leading parties have managed to retain their dominance in the polls in that country.  Finally, Poland will hold parliamentary elections in October, with the conservative and Eurosceptic Law and Justice Party sitting in a strong position to end eight years of governance by the centrist Civic Platform.

Another region that has suffered a severe economic downturn in recent years, South America, will see national elections take place in the two countries that are suffering from the region’s highest rates of inflation, Argentina and Venezuela.  In Argentina, the populist left-wing President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner is stepping down and a tight three-way race for the presidency is expected between Daniel Scioli (the favored candidate of President Kirchner), Mauricio Macri (the center-right governor of Buenos Aires) and Sergio Massa (the centrist candidate who trails the other two leading candidates in the polls, but may play kingmaker).  Later in the year, Venezuela will hold parliamentary elections amid a collapsing economy and a steep decline in support for President Nicolas Maduro’s left-wing government.  With many of the leaders of Venezuela’s right-wing political opposition in jail or in exile, it remains to be seen if President Maduro’s government will allow for the political opposition to win these elections or if it will launch a new crackdown on the political opposition to prevent it from taking control of the legislature.

Outside of Europe and South America, most of the other national elections that will take place over the remainder of this year are in Sub-Saharan Africa, a region where free and fair elections are the exception rather than the rule.  In October alone, national elections are scheduled in five countries in this region, including Tanzania, Cote d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Guinea and the Central African Republic, with the latter four countries having experienced major political unrest in recent years.  The only other election of note in the latter part of 2015 will take place in Myanmar, where November’s parliamentary elections will be the latest test of the willingness of the military-dominated government in that country to share power with the country’s popular political opposition.  Altogether, there are a number of interesting elections taking place in countries that have experienced either political or economic turmoil in recent years and this could lead to major political changes in these countries before, during and after these elections.