US-Chinese Relations in 2017
While the focus of the international media in the wake of Donald Trump’s election victory in the United States has been on the US’ ties with countries such as Russia and Mexico, the relationship between the United States and China will remain the most important bilateral relationship in the world over the next four years. While most of the United States’ leading allies around the world are powers that are either defending the status quo or are trying to arrest their decline, and while its rival Russia is also attempting to reverse its own decline, China presents the United States with a unique challenge. This is due to the fact that not only is China a rising power, but it is also the only country with the potential power to challenge the global hegemony of the United States in the 21st century.
In recent years, this challenge has been confined largely to Asia, as China has sought to assert its primacy in the world’s largest and most populous region. However, as Chinese power continues to grow, China will increasingly challenge the US’ lead role in areas outside of Asia and this threat will be the greatest long-term challenge facing the incoming Trump Administration in the US.
Over the past two decades, the United States has been building an alliance system in the Asia-Pacific region designed to prevent Chinese hegemony over Asia by establishing a balance of power that offsets China’s rising economic and military strength. In response, China has used its vast market for natural resources and other imports to expand its influence over this region, but in truth, China has found it difficult to find close allies in the region due to fears of Chinese domination over the region.
However, there are signs that the incoming government in the United States might be less interested in maintaining this hard-fought balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region, presenting China with an opportunity to expand its influence over the region. While this is seen as an opportunity in Beijing, there are also a number of risks for China stemming from the incoming Trump Administration. Already, we have seen strong words between the incoming US president and the Chinese government over issues such as Taiwan, the South China Sea and international trade. Moreover, as a government that values stability and predictability, the unpredictable nature of the president-elect of the US is a major source of concern for the China’s leadership.
Looking ahead to the next four years, there are a number of economic and political flashpoints that could stoke a major increase in tensions between Washington and Beijing. For China, President-elect Trump’s criticism of Chinese trade and monetary policy during the US presidential election campaign has raised fears of a trade war that could erupt at a time when the Chinese economy is particularly vulnerable to external pressure. With a slowing economy, major asset bubbles, industrial over-capacity and rising debt levels, the once booming Chinese economy is now facing the rising threat of a hard-landing that could lead to major unrest inside China, the single-greatest fear of the Chinese government.
Meanwhile, there are a number of flashpoints across the Asia-Pacific region where the US and China are at odds. For example, China’s claim to nearly all of the South China Sea has been resisted by the US and many Southeast Asian countries, but it remains to be seen if the Trump Administration will defend its regional allies in this dispute. Likewise, President-elect Trump has been critical of China’s reluctance to do more to force North Korea to abandon its nuclear program. Altogether, there are many issues that could lead to a severe deterioration in US-Chinese relations in the coming months and years.
There is no doubt that a deterioration in the relationship between the world’s two most powerful countries would severely destabilize the world’s economic and security situation. Moreover, a longer-term deterioration of US-Chinese relations could lead to a sort of new Cold War in which other countries around the world find themselves forced to choose sides in a global struggle for leadership. Nowhere is this relationship more important than in Asia, the region that will provide for much of the world’s economic and technological growth in the 21st century. A United States that is committed to maintaining a large economic and military presence in Asia helps to ensure that there is a stable balance of power in that region.
However, a withdrawal of the US presence there would allow China to emerge as the dominant power in Asia, resulting in many of that region’s countries becoming little more than Chinese satellites over the longer-term. Overall, the United States and China will remain the world’s two leading powers for the foreseeable future, and, if they can maintain a stable relationship, they will be the two countries that provide the bulk of the world’s economic growth in the decades ahead. Hopefully, the governments in Washington and Beijing will realize the importance of this relationship and work hard to ensure that the two great powers of the 21st century can avoid a conflict that would have global ramifications.