Saudi Arabia's Uncertain Future
In many respects, Saudi Arabia has emerged as the unquestioned leader of the Arab world, an incredible development for a country that was not that long ago nothing more than an afterthought for much of the world. This is largely due to the fact that Saudi Arabia is home to the most holy sites in the Islamic religion and is one of the world’s leading oil producers. However, this success is at risk, as a number of external and internal threats are jeopardizing Saudi Arabia’s success and prosperity in the 21st century. Given the wide range of threats that the country faces, Saudi Arabia’s leaders will face a very difficult task in managing so much risk in the years ahead.
Many of the key threats facing Saudi Arabia today come from outside of its borders. For example, Sunni Saudi Arabia’s tense rivalry with Shiite Iran has led to Saudi fears of Iran’s intentions to spread its influence across the Middle East. After Iran gained influence in Iraq and Syria over the past decade, Saudi Arabia has moved decisively to put down Shiite rebellions in Bahrain and Yemen in recent years, but at a sizeable cost. Meanwhile, the rise of the radical Islamist State militant group in Syria and Iraq is very worrisome for the Saudi government, given the desire of the Islamic State to overthrow the Saudi monarchy. With many Saudis fighting alongside the Islamic State, al-Qaeda or other militant Islamist groups in the region, there are legitimate fears that these radicalized Saudis could return to their home country to carry out attacks, recruit new members and spread their anti-monarchy ideals.
Inside Saudi Arabia, there are also a number of factors that threaten the country’s future unity and stability. For example, the large Shiite minority that lives in oil-rich areas of eastern Saudi Arabia has staged large-scale protests in recent years and remains dissatisfied with their position in Saudi society. Meanwhile, another form of religious tension that is widespread in Saudi Arabia is the growing gap between the country’s ultra-conservative religious authorities and the increasingly globally-connected Saudi youth that hope for a reduction in the religion-inspired restrictions that dominate everyday life in Saudi Arabia. Moreover, Saudi females continue to enjoy few rights in Saudi Arabia, but an increasing number of women are willing to challenge the country’s religious authorities and demand more rights for Saudi females.
On the economic front, Saudi Arabia remains a key driver of the world’s oil and gas industry, as evidenced by its decision to push global oil prices downwards over the past ten months, leading to a 55% fall in oil prices. However, this move was made out of fear. First, there was the fear of Iran’s rising influence in the Middle East, so Saudi Arabia used its ability to steer global oil prices downwards to harm the sanctions-hit Iranian economy that relies on high oil prices in order to grow economically. Second, the shale revolution in the United States and the expansion of Canada’s oil sands industry are threatening Saudi Arabia’s domination of the global oil and gas industry, so Saudi authorities hoped that a fall in oil prices would reduce investment in the US and Canada’s oil industries. So far, the results have been mixed, showing that Saudi Arabia is losing its once-absolute control of the global price of oil.
Finally, Saudi Arabia’s long-term future is very uncertain due to the country’s less-than-hospitable climate and environment. Today, Saudi Arabia is home to 30 million people (20 million Saudi nationals and 10 million foreigners). This is a tremendous increase over the 4.5 million people who lived in Saudi Arabia just 50 years ago, giving the country one of the fastest rates of population growth in the world during the last half century. Given the fact that the country has so few water resources and very little arable land, this population growth is clearly unsustainable. Fortunately, the country’s population growth is slowing, as the government has encouraged people to have fewer children and has severely reduced the rate of immigration. Nevertheless, dwindling water resources and a need to find arable land outside of its borders will prove to be a very challenging task for Saudi Arabia in the years and decades ahead.