ISA Ukraine Conflict Update - 9th of March 2022

Daily Summary

Russian advances remained relatively limited along most areas of the front in Ukraine in recent days. Furthermore, there were increasing reports of not only Russian armed forces struggling with supply lines and equipment failures, but also of concerns that they did not have enough regular forces to take their main objectives, including Kyiv and Kharkiv.

The primary focus of Russia’s invasion remained the seizure of the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv. In recent days, Russian forces have moved to surround the city and were able to take small areas of territory to the west and the east of the capital. However, it appears that the Ukrainian defenders have extracted a heavy toll on their invaders along this front.

In the east, Russian forces appear to be attempting to link the Kharkiv front with the Russian-controlled territories of Donetsk and Luhansk. In fact, Ukraine now only controls a small sliver of land along the eastern border between Russia and Ukraine. However, efforts to seize Kharkiv itself have thus far been thwarted, although Russian artillery has been pounding Ukraine’s second-largest city heavily in recent days.

Along the southern front, Russia’s siege of the city of Mariupol has left much of that city in ruins, and there are reports of severe food shortages inside the besieged city. Elsewhere, Russian forces have made a few thrusts from the southern front in the direction of Moldova and towards southeastern Ukraine.

What to Watch

Russia’s Economy in Tatters: With international sanctions growing by the day and with more and more international firms halting their operations in Russia, the Russian economy is suffering massive losses. This has led to fears that Russia is likely to default on its debts in the near-future.

The Coming Days: Russia is continuing to assemble its military and paramilitary forces in the areas it controls outside of the city of Kyiv, indicating that it hopes to encircle that city in the coming days before launching an eventual effort to seize control of the Ukrainian capital.