Russia's Next Steps

In recent years, no country has done more to overturn the status quo in international affairs than Russia, despite the fact that many geopolitical experts had written Russia off as no more than a former great power trapped in a spiral of terminal decline.  There are many reasons why Russia has grown more assertive in foreign affairs in recent years.  First and foremost, the United States’ increasing disinterest in European and Middle Eastern affairs, and the increasing weakness of European powers, has created a power vacuum in many areas of Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia, areas where Russia has become more assertive. 

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made no secret of his desire to reverse some of the losses in terms of territory and spheres of influence suffered by Russia in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union.  In addition, Russia’s external adventures help Moscow to distract the Russian populace from the economic woes that their country has suffered in recent years.  As these factors are likely to remain in place, more attempts at restoring Russia’s power and influence outside of its borders are likely in the years ahead.

Under the leadership of President Vladimir Putin, Russia has taken a series of clearly-defined steps designed to enhance its power and influence in the world so that it can once again be considered a top-ranking power alongside the likes of the United States and China.  During the first few years that he was in power, President Putin concentrated his efforts on restoring centralized rule to Russia by stripping the country’s various regional and local governments of their power and by restoring Moscow’s control over restive areas of the country, such as Chechnya.  Once Moscow’s control over all of the territory within Russia’s borders had been secured, President Putin turned his attention to Russia’s near-abroad, mostly among the other countries that were once a part of the Soviet Union.  In many cases, this involved making sure that neighboring countries were ruled by leaders loyal to Moscow. 

However, in those cases where governments were in place that were hostile to Moscow, Russia took steps to destabilize these countries, often via the Russian minorities living there.  This was best demonstrated in Ukraine, where Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula and supported pro-Russian breakaway militants in their insurgency against Kiev in eastern parts of that country.  Finally, Russia has only recently begun to attempt to restore its once-extensive ties further abroad and nowhere is this trend clearer than in Syria, where Russia has taken the lead role in supporting the Syrian government in that country’s long-running civil war.

So far, Russia has followed a clear path towards its goal of returning to great power status, focusing first internally, than in its near-abroad, and then finally, further afield.  However, Moscow’s goals concerning each of these three steps are far from being realized.  Internally, while President Putin has restored centralized control to most areas of his vast country, Russia’s recent economic woes have cost his government much of its support.  Around Russia’s borders, Moscow still faces hostile governments in key areas such as Ukraine and the Baltic states, while competing with China and others to fill the growing power vacuum in Central Asia.  Finally, while Russia has played a decisive role in reversing the Syrian government’s fortunes in the civil war in that country, Russia’s power projection capabilities remain very limited, particularly when compared with those of the United States, or with those being developed by China.  As such, Russia will face a difficult challenge in achieving a satisfactory outcome for each of its self-defined steps towards regaining great power status.

There is little doubt that Russia faces a great challenge in achieving its ambitious goals, particularly those that involve areas of the world further away from Russia’s borders.  This is due to the fact that Russia’s economy is now totally dependent upon natural resource exports and is dwarfed by the economies of the United States, China and the European Union.  These economic struggles will limit Russia’s ability to expand and modernize its armed forces, which are needed to realize Russia’s ambitious foreign affairs goals.  In fact, for Russia to continue to play a leading role in regions such as Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia, it will need for the United States to remain distracted by events elsewhere or by an increasingly isolationist turn in US foreign affairs.  Furthermore, Russia must hope for smooth relations with China in the east and Europe in the west if it is to continue to pursue its ambitions in its near-abroad.  Nevertheless, while Russia’s power potential is constrained by a number of factors, it will continue to be able to play a destabilizing role in many areas of the world, a role that the current government is Moscow seems to relish.